8 MAY 2020, NOTES

It is Friday, May 8, 2020. Welcome, blog reader on this day of remembrance. We are recalling two great wars, one of the past and one of the present. Today is the seventy-fifth anniversary of the end of the Second World War in Europe, the greatest man-made war of modern history. Today we are engulfed in a pandemic, the greatest natural war of recent history. Both of these wars tested, and are testing, humanity in profound ways. It is life versus death.

The Second World War was the pivotal event of the Twentieth Century. Everything before 1939 was leading up to it. Everything after 1945 has been in its wake. It is no exaggeration to say that this war made us who we are today, both in the world and America. The war itself was unimaginable horror and destruction. However, its aftermath has seen a great deal of good.

May 8, 1945 was a day of unparalleled joy and celebration among our European allies but not so much in America. Here, we knew the war was not over. Far from it. We knew Japan still presented a formidable resistance in the Far East. We knew thousands more American soldiers and sailors would die before the war would be finally over. Of course, no one knew about the atomic bomb which was top secret. Thus, the great celebration in America came three months later when Japan finally surrendered. 

I was two years old when the war ended and I can recall some events. I lived in a navy town, Pensacola, and on the main avenue between downtown and the big Naval Air Station. Traffic was always bumper-to-bumper. Almost everyone I knew was connected in some way with the naval bases. I remember a lot of noise and excitement when the war ended, then quiet and exhausted relief. In the war itself, I remember my mother's ration books she kept in a kitchen drawer and took to the store to tear off little coupons when she bought necessary commodities. She guarded those ration books with her life. I recall too my father putting up blackout curtains at dusk on our front windows that faced Pensacola Bay and the Gulf of Mexico beyond. German submarines were known to patrol off shore. The life that I knew then was completely defined by the war.

We are now locked in another war. It is hard to imagine two wars more different. This one is being waged by a microscopic organism that is amoral and only concerned for its own procreation through any and every host it can find. It is highly contagious and insidious, attacking people in different ways, and often targeting key organs. There is no cure. There is not even an agreed upon treatment. We are almost helpless in the face of this enemy. There is no coordinated world-wide response. There is no coordinated American response. The disease is running rampant in the world and in our country. The economy is in near collapse. Millions of people are suddenly unemployed. Food banks are nearing exhaustion. Fear and hopelessness are all around us. Leadership from the White House is absent.

We have been tracking the progress of the pandemic in increments, four-day periods of late, in hopes of finding a pattern of activity. So, let's take a look at the new data by the past three four-day periods:

NEW CASES,
                Apr. 26-30           Apr. 30-May 4    May 4-May 8
World     299,213, +10%   349,035, +11%    351,825, +10%

U.S.         103,676, +11%   124,254, +12%   104,053, +9%

SC           628, +12%          745, +13%          516, +8%

AL           712, +11%          963, +14%          369, +27%


DEATHS,
World     24,843, +12%     20,041, +9%       22,528, +9%

U.S.         7,404, +14%       6,937, +11%       8,336, +12%

SC           66, +40%             43, +19%           41, +15%

AL           49, +23%             28, +11%           79, +27%


The cumulative figures are staggering. In the world, a total of 271,095 people have died in the pandemic. In the U.S., the death total is at least 76,942. In SC, 316 people have died, in AL, 369.

There is no discernible pattern in the data above for the world and the U.S. Overall, raw numbers are up but not the rate of increase. The figures for SC do suggest an overall decline in the rate of spread and of deaths in the state although the pattern is not constant. It is still too early to make any definitive conclusions about the course of this pandemic. However, at the current rate of deaths in the U.S. (2,000/wk.), more than 100,000 Americans will be dead of the virus by August. 

Bottom line, the pandemic is spreading in the world and in the United States. One must bear in mind, COVID-19 appeared only a few months ago. In the U.S., the first case was identified on Jan. 20, 2020. That means, in less than four months, over 76,000 Americans have died of the disease. This is the worst public health crisis in the country since the flu pandemic of 1918.

Church officials are preparing to re-open the churches for in-person worship. In the vacuum of leadership in the U.S., the burden of decision making falls on their shoulders. They must weigh a great deal in making their decisions on when and how to invite the faithful back into the church buildings. We know the seriousness of this disease. In SC, it was clearly and frighteningly demonstrated at St. Andrew's of Mt. Pleasant. The rector there lay in an ICU for a week on a ventilator hovering between life and death. It is widely suspected he caught the virus at a church gathering in Pawleys Island early in March. We do not know how many people in St. Andrew's contracted the coronavirus. We do know that Mt. Pleasant is a "hot spot" for the virus in the state. The lesson---churches can be places of viral infection.

All of us want to return to our beloved churches. We have been in unwelcomed quarantine for a long time now. We miss our church homes, our fellow congregants, our clergy. The churches will re-open. With all we know now, it is imperative that church officials proceed with the utmost of caution and care as they plan the conditions on which they will re-open the churches.

Remember, friends, we are all here for the living of this hour. We did not want his. We did not cause this. Nevertheless, we are here and we must respond as our faith tells us. We prevailed in the Second World War. We can prevail in the present war. Peace.

ANGLICAN DIOCESE OF SC TO REOPEN CHURCHES ON MAY 17

Bishop Lawrence has told clergy of the Anglican Diocese of South Carolina they can resume in-person services in their churches on May 17. Apparently, the clergy will have a good deal of latitude on how they go about the re-opening. In an email message sent today, the clergy of Old St. Andrew's (St. Andrew's of West Ashley) outlined their plans for resuming public worship on the 17th. 

OSA says it will continue its live-streaming and will allow a maximum of 100 persons in the building in each of its two morning services. Overflow will have to remain outside. Five people will be allowed at the altar rail at a time. As for communion, "Only the celebrating clergy will touch the wafer and then will intinct (dip) the wafer into the wine before placing it into the palm of the recipient." There was no mention of other stipulations such as choirs or congregations singing, common handling of prayer books and hymnals, passing of collection plates, and attendees wearing face masks.

The description of communion here is problematical. Intinction of the wafer into the chalice is known to be unsanitary because germs from the hands are transferred to the wafer and into the wine. I for one would not take a wafer that had been dipped into the cup even by an officiant who had used hand sanitizer. Another caution is that the wafer, wet with wine, will be placed into the palm. No residue of consecrated wine should be left on anyone's skin. The commonsense solution to these problems is to administer communion to the laity by wafer only.

Although the recent CDC proposed guidelines for churches to re-open has been shelved by the White House, their recommendations still make a lot of sense and should be seriously considered by church authorities before they re-open the churches to in-person services. Here are the main points of the CDC guidelines for re-opening churches:

---disinfect common surfaces before and after services.

---attendees should wear face masks.

---seating distance of 6 feet apart except for family groups. Consider seating every-other pew.

---no use of common prayer books and hymnals. Provide service guides in disposable form.

---no commonly touched collection plates. Collection should be in a stationary place.

---no choirs.

---no physical touching, as passing peace.

---at times of food service (coffee hour and meals), items to be consumed should be individually served, as in bags and boxes.

Re-opening church under any set of stipulations is risky business in South Carolina as new cases and deaths from COVID-19 continue to spiral up in the state. As of today, SC is reporting 7,142 cases and 316 deaths. One week ago, there were 6,258 cases and 256 deaths. Thus, in just the last week, some 900 people in SC have fallen ill of the virus and 60 people have died of it. Looking back over the last month (Apr. 7-May 7), numbers in SC climbed from 2,417 cases to 7,142, while deaths went from 51 to 316. As churches re-open this month, they will be doing so as the highly contagious and deadly virus is relentlessly spreading in the state and claiming more and more victims.

It behooves the church officials to consider carefully the conditions for re-opening. Surely, it is better to err on the side of caution and take all the precautions possible to keep worshipers from exposure to the virus.

NEW CDC GUIDELINES

FOR REOPENING CHURCHES SHELVED

The Associated Press reported this morning that the Trump administration has killed the new proposed guidelines of the Centers for Disease Control for the reopening of areas of American life, including churches. 

The seventeen-page document from the CDC was leaked to the press early last week as it was sent to the White House for approval. It gave detailed directives on how to reopen churches such as no choirs, face masks for everyone, six-feet distancing, no commonly handled items, and no common food service. It was believed that the White House would officially release the document to the public last Friday. That did not happen. Now, the AP is reporting the document has been scrapped.  

Find today's AP report here .

As of the information we have now, we can only speculate on why the administration killed the new guidelines. What we do know from all reporting is that the Trump administration has turned to a new focus, the reelection of the president. The November election is now less than six months away. The administration's concern now is less on the pandemic and more on politics. One may assume this is what underlay their decision to scrap the CDC guidelines, that is, they felt it was not politically advantageous.

What this means for the churches as they approach re-opening is unclear. The present CDC guidelines online are vague and general. Apparently churches are on their own to decide what to do in the context of the local orders on closures and re-openings. It looks as if there will be no national guidance on the re-opening of churches. 

SCOTUS LIVE-STREAMED
TRADEMARK CASE

The Supreme Court of the United States live-streamed a hearing today for the first time in history. It is audio-only. Find it here (the hearing starts 30 minutes in) . This is also important because the case at hand is Patent & Trademarks v. Booking.com. This is the case that the Anglican Diocese of South Carolina was counting on to settle its claim concerning the issue of trademark. In its petition to the U.S. Court of Appeals for a stay of Judge Gergel's order, ADSC argued that the court should wait until SCOTUS decided the Booking.com case before rendering a judgment on the church case. The Court of Appeals rejected ADSC's petition for a stay.

As I see it, the issues in the church case and the Booking.com case are not the same. The ADSC claims, as it just did again in its brief last week to the Appeals Court, that "episcopal church" is a generic term and therefore the (disassociated) Diocese of South Carolina could not have been in violation of infringement on trademark. The Episcopal Church side argues that the Church legally, officially registered this and similar terms in 2007 as federal trademarks in the Patent and Trademark Office and anyone else using them would be in violation of the Lanham Act that protects federally registered trademarks. Thus, any assertion that "episcopal church" is generic has no substance in law. Judge Gergel issued a decision last September that completely agreed with the Episcopal Church position. 

The issue in Bookings.com is not the same. In this case, a company asked the Patent and Trademarks Office of the federal government to give the company a trademark for the term "Bookings.com". The Office denied the request saying it could not trademark a generic word even if ".com" were added on to it. The company appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court which heard oral arguments today. The issue today is whether ".com" changes the nature of a generic word so that it can be trademarked. That is not the issue in the church case. Thus, in my view the Bookings.com case has no relevance to the proceedings of the church case that is now in the U.S. Court of Appeals. As I have said, odds are strong the appeals court will uphold Judge Gergel's sweeping decision in favor of the Episcopal Church.

As for the hearing today, whatever SCOTUS decides about adding ".com" and trademarks is irrelevant to the litigation between the disassociated party in SC and the Episcopal Church. ADSC's claim about the Booking.com case is grasping at straws in a rapidly disintegrating course of litigation that they themselves started more than seven years ago. ADSC lost the big issues in court. It is only a matter of time before the Episcopal Church diocese recovers the 29 parishes, the Camp, and the other properties and assets the courts have awarded to it.  

4 MAY 2020, NOTES

Welcome, again, blog reader, on this Monday, May 4, 2020. The pandemic continues to spread and claim more and more lives around the world. I have been following the statistics in Worldometer in two-day increments trying to discern a pattern in the pandemic. Today I am going to begin following a four-day period that might be more useful as a gauge of trends. So, what do the figures of the day show? Is the trajectory of the plague going up or down?

According to Worldometer, in the past four days (April 30-May 4), there were 349,035 new cases of COVID-19 in the world, for a rising rate of 11%. In the earlier four-day period (April 26-30), the rising rate was 10% (299,213 new cases). Thus, there is a slight rise in the rate of the spread of the disease in the world. 

As for deaths in the world, there were 20,041 in the last four days, for a rising rate of 9%. This is a decrease from the earlier four days' 12% (24,843 deaths). Thus, there has been a decline in the death rate.

As for the United States, there were 124,254 new cases reported in the last four days, for am upward rate of 12%. This is up from the previous four days rate of 11% (103,676 new cases). As for deaths in the U.S., there were 6,937 in the last four days, a rising rate of 11%. This is a decline from the 14% of the earlier four-day period (7,404 deaths). The mortality rate declined considerably in the new period.

As for South Carolina, 745 new cases were reported in the last four days, for an increasing rate of 13% (now 6,626 cases). The earlier rate had been 12%. In SC, 43 people died of the virus in the last four days, a rate of 19% (275 total deaths). This was down from the 40% rise of the earlier period. Thus, the disease is spreading in the state although not at the same rate.

The story in Alabama is about the same. There were 963 new cases, a rate of 14%. The earlier period had seen 712 new cases, a rate of 11%. In AL, 28 people died of the plague in the past four days, a rate of 11%, well below the earlier rate of 23% (49 deaths). Bottom line in SC and AL, the virus is spreading in both states but the rate of infection and death may have leveled off. Still, more and more people are getting sick and dying of the disease even as both states "open" public places.

The graphs and charts on Worldometer, Wikipedia, and other places generally show a leveling off of new cases and deaths from the first of April until now. This is good news and bad news. The good news is that the distancing measures taken in April have worked to slow the progress of the disease. The bad news is that the virus continues to run unchecked sickening and killing ever more people. At best the curve has flattened. It definitely has not turned to a downhill course. Now that most states and localities are lifting, or have lifted, their social quarantines, the figures of spread and death may change. This remains to be seen. There could well be a spike in a few weeks.

The American response to the pandemic continues to be abysmal. In fact, there is no coordinated, unified, national policy to mitigate COVID-19. There are far more cases in the U.S. than in any other country, same with deaths. As for testing, the U.S. is well behind three dozen countries in testing as a percentage of the population. President Trump's administration is in turmoil. The internal struggle for the past few weeks has been between the forces (conservative) demanding re-opening sooner rather than later and those (scientists) holding out for later rather than sooner. It is clear the conservative forces have won. The scientists have been sidelined. The U.S. is "opening up" in the vast majority of places even though the highly contagious virus continues to spread unabated. It is also clear that the president's incompetency on this is hurting his chances of getting reelected. The latest polls indicate a disaster for Trump and the Republican Party in the elections just six months away. And so, Mitch McConnell is rushing to push through as many Senate confirmations of new federal judges as possible. Next year, the judiciary may well be the last political refuge of the Republicans.

The best review of what has happened in Washington in the past few weeks concerning the pandemic can be found here .

What ever happened to the new proposed guidelines of the Centers for Disease Control regarding reopening churches? It was leaked to the media last week as it was sent to he White House for approval. Nothing has been heard of it since. Apparently the administration balked at something(s) in the guidelines. There should be some word about the new CDC guidelines soon.

In spite of the dangerously incompetent response of the presidential administration to the pandemic, the people of America have arisen to the occasion under other leaders, as state governors. Just this weekend came an eloquent call for unity from a past president who knows something about responses to crises (aftermath of 9-11 was his finest hour). Find the necessary words of George W. Bush here . "We rise or fall together." Enough said.

The plague continues without let up. Always remember, we are here for the living of this hour. Peace.

GOOD SHEPHERD SUNDAY

Greetings to you, blog reader. It is May 3, 2020. Today is Good Shepherd Sunday, the fourth Sunday in the Easter season. The Gospel reading today is of the Good Shepherd. The Psalm of the day is the Twenty-Third, surely everyone's favorite.

So, let's take a break from the darkness of the COVID-19 plague ravaging our world and remember the Lord as the Good Shepherd, the one who rescues even the least among us, the lost lambs. If we ever needed the reassurance of divine love and care, it is now in this time of crisis. Taking a moment out to reflect on this thought will do us good.

A long time ago, some forty-odd years now, I had a sudden medical emergency. As I lay in the twilight zone between life and death for several days my foggy mind could recall only two Bible passages I had memorized years before, the Lord's Prayer and the Twenty-Third Psalm. I came to rely on them in my moment of need, repeating them over and over. They got me through and eventually I recovered well thanks to the God-given miracles of modern medicine. All these years later, I am still partial to these two. They still help me through tough times.

My favorite musical rendition of the Twenty-Third Psalm is the theme from "The Vicar of Dibley," one of my favorite shows. It is worth hearing again today. Find it here .

The visual image of the Good Shepherd is one of the oldest, if not the oldest in early Christianity. Well before the Christian religion was legalized in the Roman Empire (313 CE), the image of the Good Shepherd was depicted on the walls of catacombs, some of which have been preserved. Over the years, the picture of Jesus Christ as the Good Shepherd has been interpreted countless times. One of the most popular of the modern versions was that of the German romantic artist Bernard Plockhorst (1825-1907). It became very widely favored in America.

This painting, reproduced many times, became a favorite of stained glass makers. Around the year 1910, the window below was installed in St. Luke's Episcopal Church, in Jacksonville, Alabama. The name of the company that made it has been lost in time. It is Plockhorst's painting minus the flock of sheep:

So, let us take a moment today and remember the Good Shepherd. No one wanted the crisis we are in. No one caused it. But, here we are for the living of this hour. And, as the Good Shepherd, we must do our best to care for each other and for ourselves.

The Collect of the Day:

Oh God, whose Son Jesus is the good shepherd of your people; Grant that when we hear his voice we may know him who calls us each by name; and follow where he leads; who, with you and the Holy Spirit, lives and reigns, one God, for ever and ever. Amen.

Peace.

ADSC FILES BRIEF

WITH U.S. APPEALS COURT

On April 30, 2020, the Anglican Diocese of South Carolina filed "Brief of Appellants" in the United States Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit, in Richmond, Virginia. This is an appeal of the rulings of U.S. District Court Judge Richard Gergel, of Charleston. 

A brief recap:  The case was vonRosenberg v. Lawrence, brought by the Church side in 2013 to prevent the disassociated side from infringing on trademarks. In other words, the Church side claimed to be the legal and legitimate heir of the old diocese. On Sept. 19, 2019, U.S. District Court Judge Richard Gergel issued an opinion recognizing the Episcopal Church diocese as the heir of the historic diocese and declaring an injunction against the disassociated diocese. On Oct. 7, the ADSC announced it would appeal Gergel's decision. The ADSC did appeal to the U.S. Court of Appeals. It then asked Judge Gergel for a stay pending the appeal. Gergel denied this on Dec. 18. ADSC then asked the Court of Appeals for a stay. The CA denied this on Jan. 14, 2020. The two sides were then to submit briefs. On yesterday, the ADSC submitted its arguments. 

The full paper is 95 pages, but the arguments are given on pages 1-67. As everyone knows, I am not a lawyer, am not an official in any diocese, and am speaking only for myself. Here is my take on yesterday's brief.

The arguments presented form a combination of well-known positions and new rejections of Gergel's contempt holdings. We all know ADSC 's old arguments well:  ---The (Anglican) Diocese of South Carolina is the historic diocese, ---The Episcopal Church in South Carolina is a new creation formed in 2013, ---The term "Episcopal Church" is generic and cannot be copyrighted, ---the (Anglican) Diocese of South Carolina still owns the state registered marks, ---this dispute is one over property and this falls under the jurisdiction of state law and neutral principles of adjudication. To these old positions, the ADSC lawyers added that Gergel's injunction was narrow and that their party did not violate the injunction and should not have been held in contempt.

All of the old arguments have been settled in court either by the Supreme Court of South Carolina or the U.S. District Court. They are no longer issues before the court, except, of course, in this appeal of the federal decision. The SCSC ruled that, following state law and neutral principles, the Episcopal Church diocese is the owner of 29 of the 36 parishes in question as well as the Camp. This is true of the parishes because they acceded to the Dennis Canon of the Episcopal Church. Thus, there can be no argument that state law still protects the claims of the failing party. The federal court ruled that the Episcopal Church side is the legal owner of the marks and rights of the pre-schism diocese, that the Episcopal diocese is the heir of the old diocese, and that the disassociated side is a new entity formed at the schism of 2012. The important principle established by the federal court was that the Episcopal Church is a hierarchical institution entitled to govern itself.

In my view, the ADSC is almost certain to fail in its quest to overturn Judge Gergel's decisions. In the first place, yesterday's brief is amazingly weak. It offers nothing new and only repeats a few arguments all of which have already failed in court. In the second place, Judge Gergel's order of last September is virtually appeal-proof. It is a masterpiece of deep and wide jurisprudence. In it, the judge gave twenty examples where the Fourth Circuit had already ruled on the issues involved.

In addition, the Appeals Court has a history with this case. Twice the Episcopal Church went to the court asking for direction to the local district judge. The court ordered Judge Houck to proceed with the case---twice. He declined to do so, and died soon thereafter, eventually to be replaced by Judge Gergel. And, as we have seen, the court denied ADSC's petition for a stay of Gergel's injunction pending the appeal. All of this together suggests a favorable attitude of the court to the EDSC party. Thus, a combination of Gergel's powerful order, ADSC's unconvincing case, and the appeal court's record points to a probable favorable outcome for the Episcopal Church side. In order for an appeals court to overturn a lower court decision, there must be a compelling case made of errors in the lower ruling. There is none here. 

Next we can expect a reply brief from the EDSC lawyers. Then, I anticipate the appeals court will decide whether to entertain oral arguments or go to direct decision. In the two times the EDSC lawyers appealed, the court held oral arguments that were live-streamed by audio. I expect a resolution of all of this within several months.

It seems to me that, considering all that has happened, it is almost certain that the Episcopal Church will prevail in federal court. If so, I expect the church side will move expeditiously to recover the properties and assets of the historic diocese that are now in the possession of the disassociated party.      

NEW CDC GUIDELINES FOR CHURCHES
POSTED BY CNN

On today, Thursday, 30 April 2020, CNN posted on its website a copy of  the new proposal of the Centers for Disease Control guidelines on re-opening areas of life that have been closed in the pandemic. Find the proposal here . We should emphasize this is a draft of the proposal and not the final copy. It has not been approved and released to the public as of this moment. Presumably, it will be announced soon.

Find the directions for "faith communities" on pages 7-9.

Here are the main takeaways as I see them.

---Under the principle of separation of church and state, the state cannot dictate policies and practices internal to churches. This guideline is only a list of suggestions.

---Strong encouragement to continue virtual services indefinitely. 

---If churches reopen, in Phase Three, they should practice social distancing and proper disinfecting.

---Solid surfaces should be disinfected frequently.

---Everyone except children under the age of two should wear face masks except under special circumstances.

---Follow the sizes of gatherings as directed by local authorities.

---Seating should be six feet apart except for family groups. May consider seating by every other row.

---"Avoid or consider suspending use of a choir or musical ensemble..." If a choir, should be six feet apart.

---Limit sharing of items commonly shared as hymn books. Use disposable materials.

---Use a stationary collection box.

---When food is served, there should be no buffets or other shared items. Food should be in individual boxes or bags. (This will impact the revered Episcopalian institutions of the coffee hour and covered dish meals.)

I expect this draft will become official and will be released soon. At least we have a heads-up on it. 

Church officials should seriously consider these suggestions as they are commonsense guides to lessening the spread of the highly contagious virus. However, if followed to the letter, these suggestions will mean major readjustments in our familiar forms of in-person worship.

GOODBYE AND GOOD RIDDANCE

TO THE MONTH FROM HELL

Today is the last day of April in the year 2020. We will not soon forget this terrible month, an unparalleled moment of death and destruction in the course of our lives. It was the month from Hell. 

At the age of seventy-six, I can look back over an eventful lifetime. I have seen many times of trial, but I have never known a month such as this. I lived through the end of WWII, the civil rights movement, the assassinations of JFK, MLK, and RFK, 1968, the Vietnam War, the Gulf wars, and 9-11. All of these times of trial involved visible enemies. The present pandemic is a sudden attack of an enemy that is invisible in itself but highly visible in its effects and against which we have no defense at all. In all probability, it will be at least another year before we have a vaccine against the coronavirus. Meanwhile, we will go on doing what we can to deter the spread of this highly contagious and deadly disease. Many more months such as April of 2020 and we will witness human devastation such as we have never known.

We have been following the statistics for the pandemic in Worldometer in two-day increments trying to discern some pattern. The last time we checked, the figures seemed promising in that the rate of spread and of deaths seemed to be declining. Not today. In the last two days, April 28-30, in the world there were 153,750 new reported cases, a rise of 5%, the same as the earlier two-day period. However, deaths are spiking. In the last two days, there were 16,261 reported deaths, for a rising rate of 8% over the earlier two-day period which had seen a 4% rise. 

In the United States, 54,065 cases were reported in the last two days, for a rising rate of 5%, the same as the previous two-day period. However, there was a sharp increase in deaths, up 4,866, for a 9% rise, well above the earlier two-day's 5% increase. In South Carolina, there is no decrease. The state reported 268 new cases in the last two days, for a rising rate of 5%, down slightly from the earlier two-day period. SC is also reporting 55 new deaths, for a total of 232. This means the mortality rate in SC increased from 7 to 31%. Alabama is following a similar path. It reported 368 new cases in the last two days, a 6% rate, up slightly. AL reported 34 new deaths, a 15% rate, up from the earlier 7%. The bottom line for the U.S., SC, and AL, is that there is no indication COVID-19 is slowing down in its spread or its mortality. 

Looking back over the statistics for the whole month of April, one has to be shocked and appalled at what they reveal. It was indeed a month in which a Hell was created by an organism so small it is barely discernible to scientists. It is astoundingly contagious and deadly. It is almost unbelievable that this tiny microbe could wreak such destruction on humankind. 

According to Worldometer, there were 873,008 cases of COVID-19 on April 1 and 3,233,851 on the early morning of April 30. That means at least 2,360,843 people in the world fell ill with the coronavirus in the month of April. As for deaths in the world, 223,994 were reported in the month (4,532 on April 1; 228,526 on April 30). 

The figures for America are even more terrifying. In the month of April, the U.S. reported at least 875,933 new cases of COVID-19 (Apr. 1-188,639; Apr. 30-1,064,572). In other words, there was more than a five-fold increase in cases in the U.S. in the month of April. Much worse were the numbers of deaths. In the month of April, at least 57,610 Americans died of the plague (Apr. 1-4,059; Apr. 30-61,669). In all, at least 61,669 Americans have died in this pandemic, and over 57,000 of them in this one month alone. This is a daily death rate of around 2,000 people. The United States has by far the highest number of cases and of deaths in the world. The U.S. became the epicenter of the pandemic in the month of April.

The figures for South Carolina and Alabama, that we have been tracking, are also frightening. SC reported at least 4,798 new cases in the 30 days of April (1,083 to 5,881). This is more than a five-fold increase in the incidence of the pandemic in the state in the month of April. The numbers for Alabama are even more worrisome. In AL, 5,926 new cases were reported in the state for a staggering rise from 999 to 6,925 in the 30 days of April. This is almost a seven-fold increase in the state. As for deaths, SC has lost 232 to the disease in the month, with 210 of those in the month of April (22 to 232). Alabama has seen 262 deaths, 239 of those in April (23 to 262). Moreover, there is no discernible decrease in the rate of spread or of mortality in SC or AL at the present.

To the people out there who are saying this virus is nothing to worry about: it is just like the flu and will go away; we do not need to take any extra precautions as closing down public places; this is no worse than any other cause of death; I say look at the numbers that are freely available on the Internet. A good source of figures, graphs and charts is Wikipedia. Find their article on the U.S. here , their article on South Carolina here , and their article on Alabama here .

The awful truth is this is the worst natural danger to confront humankind since the Second World War ended, 75 years ago. It is highly contagious. It is highly deadly (app. 6% mortality). It is ravaging the First World and is about to hit the Third World, that is woefully unprepared to meet it. I fear the world has not seen the worst effect of this virus yet.

So, it is goodbye and good riddance to the month of April 2020. The world as we know it cannot survive many more months as this. Let us hope and pray the numbers of this pandemic start to change for the better, and soon. If not, we can expect the aftereffects across the board to be worse than anyone can imagine today. 

I am sorry to be the bearer of bad news, as has been the case for weeks now. However, we need to know the truth, as hard as it may be to take.

So, overwhelmed by the sadness of the death and destruction we have seen all around us this month, I am off to my garden for meditation and prayer. I suggest that you too find a quiet spot today on this last day of April 2020 to reflect on what has happened this month. 

As always, we need to remind ourselves we are here for the living of this hour, as difficult as it may be. We must keep the faith that good will come out of this, somehow, someway, even though we cannot imagine such today, the last day of a terrible month. Peace.  

HISTORY AND THE CORONAVIRUS

The COVID-19 pandemic has been going on in the United States for nearly three and a half months. The first case in the U.S. was documented on January 20, 2020. In the short fifteen week period since then, America has counted over a million  cases and nearly 60,000 deaths from the coronavirus. Although we are only in the early phase of what is certain to be a long plague lasting at least another year, it is not too soon to start thinking about the place of this pandemic in history, particularly in American history.

Historians have two jobs. One is to collect the empirical information of the past and present it in a reasonable narrative, that is, to give the "facts" in logical order. The other is to give meaning to the narrative, that is, to interpret the facts. The two must go together. It is the second that prompts lively discussion and disagreement among historians. For instance, on the causes of the Civil War, there are numerous credible competing theories historians have put forth.

In the pre and post-Second World War period, one of the most popular and influential historians was Arnold Toynbee who published a sweeping ten-volume work, A Study of History, from 1935 to 1961. Overall, he addressed the question of why civilizations rise and fall. After all, every civilization has fallen. Obviously, none lasted forever. Even the great ones, as ancient Rome, which lasted a thousand years, fail in time. The problem is, why do some civilizations thrive and why do some die? Toynbee's answer was in how a civilization, or a culture, responds to a challenge to it. Those who find creative and successful ways rise and excel. Those who fail to meet the challenge decline and die. This is called the Challenge and Response theory of history. Although much of Toynbee's work has been questioned by historians since his time, there is still a lot to be said about the general idea that civilizations rise and fall on how they respond to challenges confronting them.

I would argue that America faced four great challenges before this year and responded strongly to each of them leading to the nation's spectacular place in the world as the richest and most powerful nation-state in history. The first challenge was the rising power of the mother country over the colonies. The response was the creation of a nation-state when a large part of the propertied classes resolved on independence. This took 13 years to accomplish (1776-1789). The second was a challenge to define the nation-state, that is, whether it was one nation or two. This took 4 years to resolve (1861-1865). The third was the Great Depression of 1929-1941. The challenge here was to preserve capitalism and the response was by creative government intervention. The fourth was the Second World War. This was an external threat to the power of the nation-state. Virtually the entire nation arose to respond decisively in about three and a half years. This made the U.S. the world's great superpower challenged only by the Soviet Union which imploded forty-five years later leaving no rival. Borrowing from Toynbee, I would argue that modern America is the result of highly successful responses to serious challenges.

Following this theory, the United States now faces a new challenge and the outcome will depend on how the nation responds to it. To be sure, COVID-19 is not the first pandemic, or epidemic, America has faced. The worst of the lot was the great influenza pandemic of 1918 when some 600,000 Americans died. Even this disaster did not disrupt the country as COVID-19 has done. In the first place, COVID-19 is not influenza. It is a highly contagious virus that is primarily respiratory, typically producing a sort of pneumonia. However, it is also known to attack other organs in some people, particularly the brain and the kidneys. It is also deadly. It is ten times deadlier than ordinary flu. It is two and a half times deadlier than the flu strain of 1918. The impact of COVID-19 is much stronger than any previous epidemic/pandemic in the United States. Thus, it is presenting a new challenge to America. How the nation responds to this unique threat will define the future of the country.

In less than four months, COVID-19 has disrupted the country as nothing has done since the Second World War. Some one million Americans have fallen ill and 60,000 have died in this short period. The governments, from federal to local, are more or less fighting the aggressive virus with the only tool they have now, a passive/aggressive stand of social distancing. The economy is veering toward severe disruption if not collapse. Thousands of businesses face bankruptcy. Some 26m people are out of work, a record since the Great Depression. Food banks are struggling to feed hungry people. Commerce is in chaos. The food supply is under strain. Congress is frantically trying to stave off catastrophe by injecting trillions of dollars in bailouts plunging the nation ever more into debt. Even this appears to be inadequate to prevent economic and social disaster. 

So, back to the theory of Challenge and Response. The question is, how well is America doing in responding to the new challenge at hand? Judging from the raw numbers at hand, we would have to say not well. The U.S. has 4% of the world's population. It now has a third of all the world's cases of COVID-19 and at least a quarter of all the world's deaths. It has far more cases and deaths than any country. This alone should give us cause for alarm about the response to the challenge. As for testing, the richest country in the world is below at least three dozen countries in tests per thousands of population. Although the U.S. has administered the largest number of tests, it lags behind many other countries in tests as a percentage of the population. Some countries, as South Korea and Germany, have done much better at testing, and have seen relatively low death rates. In the U.S., there is no national policy on testing. Thus, the bare numbers do not give us much hope that America is responding well to the challenge at hand.

In all of the four earlier cases of challenges to America, there was a centralized authority that led the successful response. Without strong, decisive, and unified leadership neither the American Revolution, nor the Civil War, nor the Great Depression, nor the Second World War would have turned out as they did. Moreover, in every case, there was a personalization of that national leadership: Washington, Lincoln, FDR, FDR. These three are now universally regarded as the greatest American leaders. Thus, large elements of the country united behind a visible, unitary leader to answer resoundingly the challenges before them.

A great deal of our inability to unite in this new crisis comes from history. In 1990, the only rival of America, the old Soviet Union, disappeared from the scene. For the past thirty years, the United States has been unchallenged as the world's only superpower. This has been a mixed blessing. A common enemy served a useful purpose of forcing the country to unite to face the external threat. This papered over the internal divisions in the country. The Cold War, which ran from 1945 to 1990, produced its share of waste and failure, but also prompted America to excel in some common endeavors such the space program. As the Cold War ended and the external threat disappeared, there was no bond to keep the centrifugal force from slinging the various elements of the nation apart. From 1990 to the present, the U.S. has seen a great deal of bitter partisan warfare as Americans seem ever more retreating into interest tribes pitted against each other. The Democrats and Republicans have traded the White House and Congress back and forth by narrow margins ruling by razor thin majorities. A national consensus on anything seems difficult or impossible these days.

It was this state of internal hostility that brought to power Donald Trump, a popular culture star who had never held elective office. A master performer, he was brilliant at empowering grievance politics uniting elements that felt threatened by modern American culture, as the angry white working class man, southerners, and evangelicals. He skillfully combined this voting block with the traditional base of the Republican Party, big business. This combination, while not a majority of the nation, was enough to give him victory in the Electoral College. He went on to employ stick and carrot to transform the Republican Party into his personal party. As president, he personalized the office to suit himself and strengthened his ties with his "base" by aggressive public relations. His problem was that he could not reach beyond this, could not expand his base. If anything, this intensified the tribal politics that had been growing since 1990.

As President Trump created his own personal form of governing and increased ties with his base, he failed to bond with the majority of Americans. Through his presidency, a majority of people consistently disapproved of his job as president. In a sense, Trump remained a minority president. 

When the coronavirus reached America, last January, Trump treated it as it had every other problem, as a public relations issue. He tried to control the message. At first, he denied its existence. For over a month he did very little about the coming pandemic of which he was warned. Then, when he did begin to act, he tried to minimize the threat, saying it would go away soon and was nothing of concern. Finally, about six weeks in when the obvious could no longer be dismissed, Trump began to fumble toward national reactions but waffled back and forth. No single, consistent, coherent policy has emerged from the national government. In fact, he took to two-hour daily "briefings" that were little more than campaign rallies where the revered experts, Drs. Fauci and Birx, were trotted out as set decorations. Apparently, his aides pulled the plug on these performances last week after his disastrous remarks about lights and disinfectants in the body. 

The lack of strong national leadership makes this challenge unlike any of the first four that had faced the country. In fact, Congress and the governors and other local officials have been virtually on their own to try to deal with the crisis as they could. Some of the local authorities, Democrat and Republican, have done commendable jobs in spite of the vacuum at the top. This has left the country with a patch-work quilt of openings and closings that makes no sense. The question is whether this local leadership will substitute for national leadership in finding a successful response to the challenge at hand. If so, it would be the first time in American history in which this occurred.

It is still early in this pandemic. We still have a long way to go before we can make sweeping conclusions, but the preliminary view is not good. The virus is ravaging America as no other country in the world and the national government seems incapable of leading a coherent response, let alone a successful one, to the challenge. This is not to say that the American people are not responding well. I think they are, and the good work that is being done is coming from them and their local authorities. I believe in America enough to remain confident that we as a people can meet the challenge of this dark hour. It is just that it will be much more difficult without the great national leadership that we had been so fortunate to have in our first four great challenges. I still think we will find a way. We have to do so. If we do not, then following Toynbee's theory of history, we will fail to respond to the challenge and will head to decline and fall. 

28 APRIL 2020, NOTES

Greetings, blog reader, on Tuesday, April 28, 2020. We are nearing the end of April. Will anyone be sad to see this month end?

We have been following the data in Worldometer in search of a discernible pattern in the pandemic upon us. Continuing with two-day increments, we can see a trend emerging, and it is a welcomed one. While the disease is spreading and killing more people, the rate of the spread is definitely declining. 

In the last two days, April 26-28, in the world, 3,080,101 cases were reported, a rise of 145,463, or 5%. This is down from the previous two days' 7% rise. As for deaths in the world, there were 8,582 in the past two days, for a rising rate of 4%. This is below the earlier two days' 6% rise. In all, 212,265 people in the world have died of the plague, all withing the last six months.

As for the United States, the coronavirus continues to spread but at a lessening pace. There are now over one million reported cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. In the last two days there were 49,611 new cases reported, for a rising rate of 5%. This is significantly less than the earlier two days' 8%. As for deaths in the U.S., there were 2,538 in the last two days, a rising rate of 5%, well below the earlier two days' increasing rate of 8%. In all, 56,803 Americans have died of the plague, all withing the past three and a half months.

South Carolina reported 360 new cases from April 26 to 28, for a rising rate of 7%, the same as the earlier two days. SC reports a total of 5,613 cases. 11 people died in SC of the plague in the last two days, a rate of 7%, less than the earlier two days' 11%. 177 people have died of the disease in SC. Alabama is following a similar path. There, 326 new cases were reported in the last two days, a rising rate of 5%, declining from the earlier two days' 7%. 15 people died in AL of the virus in the last two days, a rate of 7%, up slightly from the earlier 6%. 228 people have died of the virus in AL. 

SC and AL are conspicuously fortunate in the southeastern U.S. The in-between state of Georgia has suffered four or five times as much. Florida and Louisiana are even harder hit than GA although rising rates in all these states seem to be declining as well.

It is too soon to jump to any conclusion, especially since states are beginning to "re-open." We will not know for several weeks how this is going to impact the spread and mortality of the pandemic. It is concerning that the re-openings are happening when every state is seeing rising numbers of cases and deaths. However, the reported statistics are beginning to show a clear pattern of decline in the increase of the spread and the morbidity of the virus. Let us pray this is real and will continue.

Meanwhile, I continue to marvel at the little acts of kindness I see all around me, and I am sure you see too. On last Sunday, my sister's doorbell rang at 11:30 a.m. She lives in a retirement community of small apartments in Bay St. Louis. She opened the door and a woman, standing at a distance, asked if she could leave a box of lunch. The people of a local AME church had gotten up at dawn and cooked a feast for hundreds of people who needed a good hot meal. They were out delivering from door to door. My sister said it was the best meal she had had in memory. There is amazing grace, yet again.

Remember, friends, we are here for the living of this hour. Peace.

_____________________________________


P.S. In the "What Were They Thinking?" category, a bank clerk took this photo to show us it is not a good idea to try to disinfect money in the microwave:

26 APRIL 2020, NOTES

It is Sunday, April 26, 2020. The pandemic continues. The plague goes on its ever more deadly sweep. Our night of pain turns ever darker as we see more thousands of people fall sick and die all around us.

We have been following the data in Worldometer in two day increments trying to get some sense of a pattern in the pandemic, hoping upon hope that we will see a turning point and a lessening of the plague. I am very sorry to say that this is not in sight today. 

As for the last two days, April 24-26, in the world, there were 189,169 new cases reported for a rise of 7%, no change from the previous two day period. 2,934,638 people in the world have fallen ill with COVID-19. As for deaths in the world, 11,892 people died of the disease in the last two days, an increase of 6%, slightly less than the 7% of the earlier two days. Over 200,000 (203,683) people in the world have died in this pandemic.

The United States is by far the hardest hit country in the world with about a third of all the cases in the world and far and away the most deaths. In the past two days, there were 74,187 new cases, a rising rate of 8%, the same rate as the previous two day period. However, the rate of the increase in U.S. deaths is down noticeably. In the past two days, 4,022 Americans died of the disease, an 8% rise, below the 11% of the earlier two-day period. In all, 54,265 Americans have died in this plague.

South Carolina and Alabama continue reporting soaring numbers with no lessening in sight. SC reported 336 new cases in the last two days, a 7% rise, exactly the same rate as the earlier two days. There were 16 more deaths in SC for a total of 166. This was an 11% rise, the same as the earlier two days. Alabama reported 381 new cases, a 7% increase, well below the 19% of the earlier two days. Twelve people died of the plague in the last two days in AL, a rising rate of 6%, well below the 15% rise of the earlier two days. In AL, 213 people have died of COVID-19, all within the past few weeks.

There are news reports about the pandemic reaching a plateau or beginning to slow down. The statistics do not bear out such views. Quite the contrary, the pandemic is spreading daily and killing people at the same rate, some 2,000 a day in the United States. At this rate, we will pass the 60,000 threshold before the end of April. The predictions of 60,000 deaths by the first of August were clearly far off. Even if the curve "flattens" and 2,000 Americans die of the disease every day from now to the first of August, the total deaths would be roughly around 90,000. Now, it may be that the summer will bring a decline in the number of daily deaths, but so far there is no indication that warmer weather has any effect at all on the disease.

VIDEO OF THE DAY. I would say the video of the week is Dr. Birx's reaction as President Trump makes his wildly dangerous comments about light inside the body and injections of disinfectants in the body to fight the coronavirus at his daily show on last Thursday. She carries the pain and dismay of us all on her stricken face. This video is worth a thousand words (rapid blinking of eyes, clinched hands, diverted gaze are all signs of distress). Find it here . May God protect Dr. Birx. Since Dr. Fauci is nowhere to be seen these days, apparently she is the only thing standing between us and insanity.

Finally, remember we are here for the living of this hour, as disconcerting as it may be. Peace.  

24 APRIL 2020, NOTES

Greetings, blog reader, as we journey together on through our long, dark night of the pandemic. My constant wish is that you, indeed all of us, remain safe and well and do what we can to stop the disease and to care for those directly and indirectly affected by it.

We have been following the data from Worldometer by two-day increments to try to get some sense of the progress of COVID-19. The figures continue to be disturbing. From April 22 to 24, 172,466 new cases were reported, for an increasing rate of 7%, no change from the previous two days (Apr. 20-22). As for deaths, 13,233 were reported in the past two days, for a rise of 7%, down slightly from the 8% of the earlier two days. Nearly 200,000 people in the world have died of the plague.

Numbers of the United States continue to surge. In the past two days, there were 67,534 new cases reported for a total of 886,709. This is a rise of 8%, slightly higher than the 7% of the earlier two days. As for deaths, 4,900 Americans died of the virus in the last two days, a record. This was an 11% rise, down slightly from the 12% rate of the previous two days. As of now, 50,243 Americans have died of this disease, almost all of them within two months. The experts are now beginning to raise their projections for numbers of dead by the end of the summer.

Although there are places, as NYC, where numbers are declining, the overall figures for the U.S., and the world, continue to skyrocket. In view of the whole of the U.S., there is no indication of a leveling off. In fact, the disease is spreading rapidly around America.

In South Carolina, there were 309 new cases in the past two days, for a total of 4,917, and 15 more deaths for a total of 150. The rates are about the same. In Alabama, there is alarm at the rapid spread. In the past two days, 929 new cases were reported for a total of 5,832. This is a 19% spike, well over the earlier two-day 9%. In AL, 15 people died of the virus in the last two days, for a total of 201. Two months ago, there were no reported cases of COVID-19 in either SC or AL.

Bottom line for Apr. 24---the coronavirus is spreading rapidly in America, including SC and AL and is killing increasing numbers of people. It is highly contagious and deadly.

The dilemma we face now in the midst of this terrible pandemic is when and how to "re-open" the closed places and businesses. On the one hand, everyone wants to "get back to normal" and have people out of work return to their old jobs and ways of life. There are 26m people filing for unemployment now, a record since the Great Depression. This is bad on many levels. On the other hand, we do not want to accelerate the spread of this highly contagious virus and so must continue keeping people apart. The looming question is when and how to "re-open." Should we do it sooner rather than later or later rather than sooner? Here are two extreme examples of responses to this question:

1-

Yes, I did a double-take too. This was a protester a few days ago in Nashville TN. Assuming this sign is sincere, one has to admire the frankness of this poster even as one recoils at the appalling immorality of the message.

2-

In Denver, a few days ago, a health care worker risks his life to stand up against angry protesters demanding immediate re-opening. Shades of Tiananmen Square 1989. 

So, I think we Christians must ask ourselves what should we do now with the awful dilemma facing us? What Would Jesus Do? Would He want to see more people die so that some could have their jobs back, or would he give up his life to save the lives of others? We all know the answer. 

Finally, remember we are here for the living of this hour, as hard as it is. Peace 

SOUTH CAROLINA DIOCESES

AND THE PANDEMIC

The Episcopal Diocese of South Carolina and the Anglican Diocese of South Carolina are under stress from the pandemic. Exactly how much we cannot know but signs are clear of troubles ahead.

On yesterday, 22 April, the Episcopal diocese released a letter from the chair of the standing committee announcing a suspension ("pause" was the word used) of the search for the next diocesan bishop of the diocese. Find the letter here . The note gave no timeline for the future except to say, "We will reassess this decision on an ongoing basis." Apparently, there will be no election of a new bishop in the next diocesan convention, in November of this year. This means the diocese will be without a seated bishop for the foreseeable future, not good. Meanwhile, EDSC churches remain closed to in-person worship with no clear date of reopening. Online worship continues.

Also, on yesterday, the 22nd, the Anglican diocese urged people to give money to the church, even to "Consider giving above and beyond your tithe." Find their plea in their newsletter here . In addition, the diocese is calling for more money for Camp St. Christopher which has laid off "almost all of its staff" on "unpaid furlough." It announced a loss of "over $800,000." Considering the historic budgetary strains of the ADSC, particularly its huge costs in legal fees and supporting the Anglican Church in North America, it is no surprise that the crisis of the pandemic is having "dire" effects on that diocese that is now pleading to its people for financial rescue.

Meanwhile, local churches controlled by ADSC clergy continue on in lock-down with no certain date of reopening. Interestingly enough, Bishop Lawrence has authorized "communion to go" allowing communicants to collect pre-packaged consecrated wafer and wine to have communion at home. One can wonder how well that is working out.

To be sure, every diocese of the Episcopal Church is suffering under the strains of the pandemic. However, these strains carry special weight in lower South Carolina where, well before the present pandemic, the two dioceses from the old Episcopal diocese were struggling under the heavy after effects of the schism of 2012. These are hard days indeed for the survivors of that historic and costly schism. 

The future welfare of the Anglican diocese was already dubious considering the failure of its claim to the historic diocese and its loss of the 29 parishes and Camp under the state supreme court ruling. Once it hands over the 29 and the Camp to the Episcopal Church, which is inevitable, it will be left with 6 parishes. How it survives the pandemic on top of all of its legal losses remains to be seen. To say the least, its future does not look good.