NOTES,  4 NOVEMBER 2020

It is the morning after Election Day. Here are my observations and thoughts on where we stand now.

---There is no clear-cut winner in the presidential race. 

---Last night, President Trump declared victory, called for the end of vote counting and charged fraud on the other side.

---As of this moment, Biden has the easier chance of winning. Fox News now gives Biden 238 Electoral College votes. He is presently leading in Nevada (6), Wisconsin (10), and Michigan (16). If he wins these three, he would win a majority (270) in the Electoral College. 

---As of this moment, chances are the Republicans will retain a majority of seats in the Senate.

What to expect now? Some dozen states are too close to call. They will be announcing their votes in the next day or two. We will know then who is likely to win in the Electoral College.

We can also expect thousands of Republican lawyers to continue to challenge ballots in the close states in an effort to reduce the Democratic vote in these states. Trump has announced as his goal that the Supreme Court will determine the winner of the election. The court has a solid 6-3 conservative majority. He has placed three of the justices on the Court.

The Electoral College meets on 14 December when the electors cast their votes from the state capitols. This gives six and a half weeks for court challenges before then.

Thoughts on the significance of the election:

---America is deeply divided. The questions are, What are the divisions and what is causing the divisions?

---Public support for Trump and his allies has changed little in the past four years. Trump is losing the popular vote by about the same measure as he did four years ago. As of now, only one state has changed from one party to another (AZ from Rep. to Dem.).

---The counter-revolution is remarkably strong. In fact, it is almost as strong as the prevailing revolutionary movement. (The Great Democratic Revolution began after the Second World War. It transformed America along lines of justice, equality, and inclusion for blacks, women, the disabled, the old, the poor, and homosexuals. The counter-revolution was the backlash of elements that felt most threatened by the reforms: white working class men, white southerners, white evangelical Christians, and big money.)

---The pandemic failed to unite the American people enough to demand a change in the national leadership that had failed to protect the country from the deadly virus.

---The alliance between Trump and his allies is strong and resilient. The Republicans made a faustian bargain with Trump. They would support his authoritarianism; and he would roll back the hated democratic reforms (esp. abortion rights). This formed a two pronged attack on the American democratic republic, extra-constitutional presidential power and repeal of the resulting reforms of the GDR. The vote yesterday suggests nearly half the American people support the faustian bargain.

---If Trump wins reelection, the faustian bargain will fundamentally change the American democratic republic into an anti-democratic authoritarian regime supported by a minority of the people. Trump will have four years of unrestrained rule. 

---If Biden wins the election, and the Republicans keep a majority in the Senate, autocracy will be averted but the Republicans in the Senate, under the iron grip of McConnell, will block any new democratic reform. There will be stalemate such as in the last six years of President Obama's administration. The faustian bargain will be defeated but the counter-revolutionaries will have great power in the Senate as well as the federal courts which Republicans have packed with conservative (counter-revolutionary) judges/justices.

We are now moving into a difficult and dangerous period of American history. The counter-revolutionaries have already launched a coup d'état to overthrow the legal and legitimate election. The next six weeks will show how how far they are willing to go to make this coup. I expect we can expect anything.