SHOULD CHURCHES TAKE MONEY
FROM THE GOVERNMENT?

The present crisis of the COVID-19 pandemic has presented us with any number of ethical problems. The biggest, of course, is whether to re-open more and more public places even though this will mean an increase in the rate of coronavirus infections and deaths. There is another ethical issue I want to bring up now, and that is the question of whether churches should take money from the government.  

First, let us review what has happened. In response to the sudden and drastic disruption caused by the various closures and social distancing policies of state and local governments, Congress passed four massive bills to inject money into the economy. The third of these was the $2.2 trillion Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (CARES), signed into law on Mar. 27, 2020. Part of this was the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) of $350 billion. The aim of the PPP was to keep employees on the payrolls of small businesses adversely affected by the closures. The fourth was an extension of the third, signed into law on April 27, 2020. It provided for an additional $320 billion for small businesses.  In all, the federal government offered $670 billion to help small businesses survive the economic disruption of the pandemic.

As the laws were crafted, the authors included, with small businesses, the 501(c)(3) nonprofit organizations, such as religious institutions. The PPP offered "loans" equaling 2.5 times the average monthly payroll costs. These would be administered by the Small Business Administration through banks. The loans would be forgiven if all employees were kept on the payroll for eight weeks and the money was used for payroll, rent, mortgage, interest, and utilities. In other words, under the certain conditions, the loan would become a grant. 

The loans were offered on a first-come-first-served basis starting on April 3. Before the money was exhausted 13 days later, the SBA had issued several million loans, averaging $206,000. There were 30,000,000 small businesses in America. One survey showed that 75% of them applied for PPP loans but only 20% obtained them. Hotels and restaurants, among the hardest hit businesses, received only 9% of the money. The second round of grants started on April 27. In the first five days, $176 billion was allocated. As of this writing, its funds have not been exhausted.

Many churches could not resist the offers of free money from the federal government. The closures of churches, starting in March, had caused a significant decline in church income. One report said more than half of churches reported 25% decline and 18% reported 50% fall. One survey showed that 40% of Protestant churches applied for the PPP loans and 59% of those were approved. Of the 17,000 Roman Catholic parishes in the U.S., 12,000 applied and 9,000 obtained loans. One survey showed that 573 Jewish organizations won loans totaling $276 million.

The national Episcopal Church and the Anglican Church in North America did not take positions on the PPP loans. However, many dioceses and local parishes did rush to claim the loans. The ACNA did a survey and found of 85 respondents, 36 had applied, 23 had been approved and 12 were pending. It also found that 3 ACNA dioceses and 2 ministry partners had applied. Of these 4 had been approved and 1 was pending.

The Diocese of South Carolina was one of the numerous Episcopal dioceses that sought the PPP loans. Early on, either in late March or early April, the EDSC posted a document on its website entitled, "The CARES Act and the Paycheck Protection Program: Important Information for Churches." Find it here . It proclaimed in bold face, "The Diocese of SC is applying for a PPP loan, and we encourage our congregations to use this resource as well. Your diocesan leadership encourages all eligible congregations to take advantage of this program." It gave detailed instructions on how to apply. The EDSC applied and received a loan (I do not know the amount).

Two days ago, I contacted the Anglican and Episcopal diocesan headquarters in Charleston to inquire about diocesan and parish applications for PPP loans. How much did EDSC receive in its loan? Did the ADSC apply? If it succeeded, what was the amount of the loan? Which parishes applied? Which won loans? What were the amounts? One responded to my email. Neither diocese would provide any of the information I requested. Under the Freedom of Information Act, federal agencies are required to provide non-classified information to the public. Under the FOIA, I have requested the information from the Small Business Administration on the PPP loans to the Episcopal and Anglican churches in South Carolina. I am awaiting a reply and will relay the information when I get it.

While many churches rushed to get the virtually free money from the federal government, not everyone thought it was the right thing to do. Jon Costas, a pastor and former mayor of Valpariso, Indiana, wrote an eye-catching article in Christianity Today discouraging churches from pursuing the PPP money. Find the article here . To Costas, the issue was much more complicated than it may have first appeared. He urged churches to consider carefully five questions before applying:

1-What Scriptural principles should inform our discussion?

2-Is our church truly experiencing financial hardship to the same degree as small businesses?

3-Will accepting a large governmental subsidy rob our members of an opportunity to give sacrificially and experience the Lord's provision?

4-Is the decision to accept the PPP grant a decision made in faith or fear?

5-What message will accepting PPP funds send to an unbelieving world?

Costas concluded, "I believe the decision to apply for and receive PPP funds is one of the most important issues the church will face in this decade. It will set a precedent for the future and may, in time, hinder the mission of the church when the strings attached to government funds are not consistent with Scripture. It will impact how the unchurched view us, and how our own members respond to our spiritual leadership."

Costas' article gives us much to ponder about the issue of churches taking government handouts. In the first place, a great deal of money is involved here. For a parish with a million dollar annual budget, the PPP "loan" would be roughly $200,000. In the second place, the demand far exceeded the supply and the vast majority of small businesses did not receive loans under the PPP. Of the ones that failed to obtain the loans, those owned by African Americans and women were disproportionately represented. Churches soaked up money that might have gone to truly needy "mom and pop" shops. No one knows now how many of them went out of business or will go out of business soon.

Costas did not bring this up, but I, a life-long student of history, will---separation of church and state. The First Amendment of the U.S. Constitution forbids the Congress from making any law respecting the establishment of a religion. While PPP does not exactly establish a government religion, one could argue it comes close by funneling public, tax-payers' money into religious institutions. This is a dangerous precedent that could lead to harmful relations down the road. Separation of church and state has worked very well throughout American history. One could make a good case that this has greatly benefited the churches. At least the empirical evidence shows a much stronger attachment of Americans to religious institutions than in the old countries of Europe. Americans like the idea of the separation of church and state.

After the first round of loans ended, on April 13, there was a public outcry about rich corporations, big businesses, universities, and even sports teams that had received the loans meant only for needy small businesses. The clamor was so loud and the spotlight so strong, that many of these well-heeled places were embarrassed enough to return the money.

So, back to our question, Should churches take money from the government, at least the PPP? This is a complicated and difficult issue that, as Costas said, is more nuanced that we might have thought at first glance. Church officials should carefully consider whether it is right to take government handouts. 

The best argument that can be made for churches to pursue the PPP grants is that the money may preserve the jobs of church employees who would have been fired or furloughed. After all, this was the original motivation of the PPP. It was meant to keep employees on the payroll for the duration of the closures. On the other hand, churches taking PPP loans may be depriving needier small businesses of the money they must have in order to stay afloat and to preserve the employment of their limited numbers of workers. Too, this may hit hardest the little businesses owned by people of color and by women. How can the churches justify taking the money under these conditions? Finally, there is the principle of the separation of church and state. As tempting as it may be at any one moment to "fudge" on this, it is a dangerous game that ought to be avoided in the best interests of both state and church.

As I see it, churches should reconsider their participation in the PPP loans. If they are to be the respected oracles of ethics and morality, they must behave accordingly. What they do speaks much louder than what they say. For a church that got a PPP loan, unless it can make a compelling case that it should keep it, the church should seriously consider returning it so that others may have the money. This would be in the spirit of a servant religion.

At the very least, church leaders and people should think about the ethical and moral dimensions of reacting to the highly disruptive conditions of life as we struggle through what will be a long night. The pandemic will continue until a vaccine appears and God only knows when that will be. The darkness of the hour must not, indeed cannot, extinguish the light of our faith. Peace.

____________________________________

Sources:

Wikipedia, "Paycheck Protection Program" .

NPR, "Not-So-Small Businesses Continue to Benefit from PPP Loans." 

CBS. "More than 12,000 Catholic churches in the U.S. applied for PPP loans and 9,000 got them."

ACNA. "Navigating the Financial Realities of COVID-19."

12 MAY 2020, NOTES

Greetings, blog reader, as we continue our travel together through the awful night of the coronavirus pandemic. We have been following the data in Worldometer trying to get an understanding of the course of the pandemic. We have a new four-day period, May 8-12, to add. So, is there a discernible pattern emerging? Here are the last three four-day periods:

NEW CASES,

                  Apr. 30-May 4         May 4-May 8         May 8-May 12

World        349,035, +11%        351,825, +10%      340, 654, +9%

U.S.            124,254, +12%        104,053, +9%         93,014, +7%

SC               745, +13%               516, +8%               650, +9%

AL               963, 14%                 369, +27                 1,118, +12

DEATHS,

World         20,041, +9%           22,928, +9%          16,575, +6%

U.S.             6,937, 11%              8,336, +12%          4,834, +6%

SC               43, +19%                41, +15%               30, +9%

AL               28, +11%                79, +27%                34, +9%

Overall, these number suggest a general pattern of slight lessening in the rate of spread and mortality. In the world, there is a noticeable decline in the rate of the increase of new cases and of deaths. The same is true for America. However, in the U.S. there has been a decline in cases in NYC but increases in many other parts of the country. In SC, overall there is a lessening in the rate of increase. Even so, 7,792 cases have been reported in SC along with 346 deaths. Alabama, on the other hand, continues to show increases in spread and deaths, now with 10,164 cases and 403 deaths. 

One has to bear in mind that the county has been in semi-quarantine for nearly two months now. This may be paying off in the declines of the rates of increase. As of yesterday, most of the U.S. is ending the closures. It remains to be seen how the re-openings will influence the numbers of new cases and deaths. The scientists seem to believe numbers will go up. 

Georgia was the first state in the southeast to lift its stay at home orders, on May 1. Since then, the state has seen 7,000 new cases, a 25% rise.

Although the rate in the increase of new cases and of deaths in the U.S. may be declining, the disease continues to run rampant in most of the country. The U.S. has 4% of the world's population and a third of all cases in the world. It is about the same for deaths. In fact, the U.S. has one of the highest death rates per 1m population in the world. As for testing, there are 38 countries that test more per 1m population. Meanwhile, there is no national program to lead the country out of this public health crisis. The presidential administration is incompetent at handling the problem. The president is preoccupied with his bid for reelection. So far, the governmental response to the pandemic in the U.S. has been poor even though some localities have handled it well. As they say, the proof is in the pudding. Just look at the numbers.

Over 81,000 Americans have died of this disease, all within the past three and a half months. In the last four days, the death rate has been app. 1,000/day. If this rate continues, by the end of the summer, over 200,000 of our fellow citizens will have died of COVID-19. The scientists are predicting a "second" and deadlier wave of the virus in the fall. God help us.

Whatever happens, bear in mind, we are here for the living of this hour. Meanwhile, we are commanded to love God and our neighbors as ourselves. Peace.

VIDEO OF THE DAY, 11 MAY

Our video of the day is of "the portable priest," a vicar in London who says if the people cannot go to church the church should go to the people. Amen to that. We have to admire his ingenuity and creativity. With young people as this, the church has a bright future.

Need a pick-me-up today, and who does not? Watch the video here . 

("Amazing Grace" has become the world's rallying theme song in this dark hour of pandemic. The vicar used Judy Collins' remarkable rendition of it. Find it here .)  

ANGLICAN DIOCESE OF SC ISSUES GUIDELINES FOR RE-OPENING CHURCHES

On May 7, 2020, the Anglican Diocese of South Carolina issued rules for the re-opening of churches in the diocese. Find the document here .

The paper has three parts, indoor worship, outdoor worship, and a sample letter to the members. The first two parts are divided into "Requirements" and "Recommendations." Overall, it is stringent. In fact, it is more stringent than the CDC guidelines for re-opening that were reportedly killed by the White House on Apr. 30 for being too stringent. Find the CDC guide here . 

The most important part of the new ADSC guide is the section on requirements for indoor worship. They are clear, detailed and quite restrictive. I see only a few items I would change. First of all, the officials would know how many people can be seated in the pews with the distancing in place. The ushers at the door should count the incoming attendees and send the excess to another place, as an outside location or parish house. Secondly, there should be no shared books in the pews. Instead, the service should be printed in a one-use disposable bulletin. Also, the ADSC requirements say "no coffee hour." Actually, the CDC guidelines do not suspend coffee hour or meals. They suggest individual service of food and drink. Since coffee hour is traditionally an important part of Sunday services, it seems that churches should find ways to offer it while keeping the rules. Also, if attendees are to wear face masks, the church should provide fresh masks for those who arrive without them. Too, "no congregational singing" is unclear. Does that mean no choir? The CDC guidelines say no choirs.

The Anglican Diocese is to be commended for this thoughtful and thorough directive for re-opening. It is in the spirit of taking all the protective measures reasonable to resume public worship. It is more restrictive than the CDC recommendations. In my view, this is the right attitude. It is the right action. It is better to err on the side of caution. We know that the coronavirus is highly contagious and deadly. We need look no farther than St. Andrew's of Mt. Pleasant to see that. So, a word of thanks to ADSC for setting a model that others should consider following as churches approach the difficult decisions about when and how to reopen.

As always, remember we are here for the living of this hour, as dark and frightening as it is. Peace.

8 MAY 2020, NOTES

It is Friday, May 8, 2020. Welcome, blog reader on this day of remembrance. We are recalling two great wars, one of the past and one of the present. Today is the seventy-fifth anniversary of the end of the Second World War in Europe, the greatest man-made war of modern history. Today we are engulfed in a pandemic, the greatest natural war of recent history. Both of these wars tested, and are testing, humanity in profound ways. It is life versus death.

The Second World War was the pivotal event of the Twentieth Century. Everything before 1939 was leading up to it. Everything after 1945 has been in its wake. It is no exaggeration to say that this war made us who we are today, both in the world and America. The war itself was unimaginable horror and destruction. However, its aftermath has seen a great deal of good.

May 8, 1945 was a day of unparalleled joy and celebration among our European allies but not so much in America. Here, we knew the war was not over. Far from it. We knew Japan still presented a formidable resistance in the Far East. We knew thousands more American soldiers and sailors would die before the war would be finally over. Of course, no one knew about the atomic bomb which was top secret. Thus, the great celebration in America came three months later when Japan finally surrendered. 

I was two years old when the war ended and I can recall some events. I lived in a navy town, Pensacola, and on the main avenue between downtown and the big Naval Air Station. Traffic was always bumper-to-bumper. Almost everyone I knew was connected in some way with the naval bases. I remember a lot of noise and excitement when the war ended, then quiet and exhausted relief. In the war itself, I remember my mother's ration books she kept in a kitchen drawer and took to the store to tear off little coupons when she bought necessary commodities. She guarded those ration books with her life. I recall too my father putting up blackout curtains at dusk on our front windows that faced Pensacola Bay and the Gulf of Mexico beyond. German submarines were known to patrol off shore. The life that I knew then was completely defined by the war.

We are now locked in another war. It is hard to imagine two wars more different. This one is being waged by a microscopic organism that is amoral and only concerned for its own procreation through any and every host it can find. It is highly contagious and insidious, attacking people in different ways, and often targeting key organs. There is no cure. There is not even an agreed upon treatment. We are almost helpless in the face of this enemy. There is no coordinated world-wide response. There is no coordinated American response. The disease is running rampant in the world and in our country. The economy is in near collapse. Millions of people are suddenly unemployed. Food banks are nearing exhaustion. Fear and hopelessness are all around us. Leadership from the White House is absent.

We have been tracking the progress of the pandemic in increments, four-day periods of late, in hopes of finding a pattern of activity. So, let's take a look at the new data by the past three four-day periods:

NEW CASES,
                Apr. 26-30           Apr. 30-May 4    May 4-May 8
World     299,213, +10%   349,035, +11%    351,825, +10%

U.S.         103,676, +11%   124,254, +12%   104,053, +9%

SC           628, +12%          745, +13%          516, +8%

AL           712, +11%          963, +14%          369, +27%


DEATHS,
World     24,843, +12%     20,041, +9%       22,528, +9%

U.S.         7,404, +14%       6,937, +11%       8,336, +12%

SC           66, +40%             43, +19%           41, +15%

AL           49, +23%             28, +11%           79, +27%


The cumulative figures are staggering. In the world, a total of 271,095 people have died in the pandemic. In the U.S., the death total is at least 76,942. In SC, 316 people have died, in AL, 369.

There is no discernible pattern in the data above for the world and the U.S. Overall, raw numbers are up but not the rate of increase. The figures for SC do suggest an overall decline in the rate of spread and of deaths in the state although the pattern is not constant. It is still too early to make any definitive conclusions about the course of this pandemic. However, at the current rate of deaths in the U.S. (2,000/wk.), more than 100,000 Americans will be dead of the virus by August. 

Bottom line, the pandemic is spreading in the world and in the United States. One must bear in mind, COVID-19 appeared only a few months ago. In the U.S., the first case was identified on Jan. 20, 2020. That means, in less than four months, over 76,000 Americans have died of the disease. This is the worst public health crisis in the country since the flu pandemic of 1918.

Church officials are preparing to re-open the churches for in-person worship. In the vacuum of leadership in the U.S., the burden of decision making falls on their shoulders. They must weigh a great deal in making their decisions on when and how to invite the faithful back into the church buildings. We know the seriousness of this disease. In SC, it was clearly and frighteningly demonstrated at St. Andrew's of Mt. Pleasant. The rector there lay in an ICU for a week on a ventilator hovering between life and death. It is widely suspected he caught the virus at a church gathering in Pawleys Island early in March. We do not know how many people in St. Andrew's contracted the coronavirus. We do know that Mt. Pleasant is a "hot spot" for the virus in the state. The lesson---churches can be places of viral infection.

All of us want to return to our beloved churches. We have been in unwelcomed quarantine for a long time now. We miss our church homes, our fellow congregants, our clergy. The churches will re-open. With all we know now, it is imperative that church officials proceed with the utmost of caution and care as they plan the conditions on which they will re-open the churches.

Remember, friends, we are all here for the living of this hour. We did not want his. We did not cause this. Nevertheless, we are here and we must respond as our faith tells us. We prevailed in the Second World War. We can prevail in the present war. Peace.

ANGLICAN DIOCESE OF SC TO REOPEN CHURCHES ON MAY 17

Bishop Lawrence has told clergy of the Anglican Diocese of South Carolina they can resume in-person services in their churches on May 17. Apparently, the clergy will have a good deal of latitude on how they go about the re-opening. In an email message sent today, the clergy of Old St. Andrew's (St. Andrew's of West Ashley) outlined their plans for resuming public worship on the 17th. 

OSA says it will continue its live-streaming and will allow a maximum of 100 persons in the building in each of its two morning services. Overflow will have to remain outside. Five people will be allowed at the altar rail at a time. As for communion, "Only the celebrating clergy will touch the wafer and then will intinct (dip) the wafer into the wine before placing it into the palm of the recipient." There was no mention of other stipulations such as choirs or congregations singing, common handling of prayer books and hymnals, passing of collection plates, and attendees wearing face masks.

The description of communion here is problematical. Intinction of the wafer into the chalice is known to be unsanitary because germs from the hands are transferred to the wafer and into the wine. I for one would not take a wafer that had been dipped into the cup even by an officiant who had used hand sanitizer. Another caution is that the wafer, wet with wine, will be placed into the palm. No residue of consecrated wine should be left on anyone's skin. The commonsense solution to these problems is to administer communion to the laity by wafer only.

Although the recent CDC proposed guidelines for churches to re-open has been shelved by the White House, their recommendations still make a lot of sense and should be seriously considered by church authorities before they re-open the churches to in-person services. Here are the main points of the CDC guidelines for re-opening churches:

---disinfect common surfaces before and after services.

---attendees should wear face masks.

---seating distance of 6 feet apart except for family groups. Consider seating every-other pew.

---no use of common prayer books and hymnals. Provide service guides in disposable form.

---no commonly touched collection plates. Collection should be in a stationary place.

---no choirs.

---no physical touching, as passing peace.

---at times of food service (coffee hour and meals), items to be consumed should be individually served, as in bags and boxes.

Re-opening church under any set of stipulations is risky business in South Carolina as new cases and deaths from COVID-19 continue to spiral up in the state. As of today, SC is reporting 7,142 cases and 316 deaths. One week ago, there were 6,258 cases and 256 deaths. Thus, in just the last week, some 900 people in SC have fallen ill of the virus and 60 people have died of it. Looking back over the last month (Apr. 7-May 7), numbers in SC climbed from 2,417 cases to 7,142, while deaths went from 51 to 316. As churches re-open this month, they will be doing so as the highly contagious and deadly virus is relentlessly spreading in the state and claiming more and more victims.

It behooves the church officials to consider carefully the conditions for re-opening. Surely, it is better to err on the side of caution and take all the precautions possible to keep worshipers from exposure to the virus.

NEW CDC GUIDELINES

FOR REOPENING CHURCHES SHELVED

The Associated Press reported this morning that the Trump administration has killed the new proposed guidelines of the Centers for Disease Control for the reopening of areas of American life, including churches. 

The seventeen-page document from the CDC was leaked to the press early last week as it was sent to the White House for approval. It gave detailed directives on how to reopen churches such as no choirs, face masks for everyone, six-feet distancing, no commonly handled items, and no common food service. It was believed that the White House would officially release the document to the public last Friday. That did not happen. Now, the AP is reporting the document has been scrapped.  

Find today's AP report here .

As of the information we have now, we can only speculate on why the administration killed the new guidelines. What we do know from all reporting is that the Trump administration has turned to a new focus, the reelection of the president. The November election is now less than six months away. The administration's concern now is less on the pandemic and more on politics. One may assume this is what underlay their decision to scrap the CDC guidelines, that is, they felt it was not politically advantageous.

What this means for the churches as they approach re-opening is unclear. The present CDC guidelines online are vague and general. Apparently churches are on their own to decide what to do in the context of the local orders on closures and re-openings. It looks as if there will be no national guidance on the re-opening of churches. 

SCOTUS LIVE-STREAMED
TRADEMARK CASE

The Supreme Court of the United States live-streamed a hearing today for the first time in history. It is audio-only. Find it here (the hearing starts 30 minutes in) . This is also important because the case at hand is Patent & Trademarks v. Booking.com. This is the case that the Anglican Diocese of South Carolina was counting on to settle its claim concerning the issue of trademark. In its petition to the U.S. Court of Appeals for a stay of Judge Gergel's order, ADSC argued that the court should wait until SCOTUS decided the Booking.com case before rendering a judgment on the church case. The Court of Appeals rejected ADSC's petition for a stay.

As I see it, the issues in the church case and the Booking.com case are not the same. The ADSC claims, as it just did again in its brief last week to the Appeals Court, that "episcopal church" is a generic term and therefore the (disassociated) Diocese of South Carolina could not have been in violation of infringement on trademark. The Episcopal Church side argues that the Church legally, officially registered this and similar terms in 2007 as federal trademarks in the Patent and Trademark Office and anyone else using them would be in violation of the Lanham Act that protects federally registered trademarks. Thus, any assertion that "episcopal church" is generic has no substance in law. Judge Gergel issued a decision last September that completely agreed with the Episcopal Church position. 

The issue in Bookings.com is not the same. In this case, a company asked the Patent and Trademarks Office of the federal government to give the company a trademark for the term "Bookings.com". The Office denied the request saying it could not trademark a generic word even if ".com" were added on to it. The company appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court which heard oral arguments today. The issue today is whether ".com" changes the nature of a generic word so that it can be trademarked. That is not the issue in the church case. Thus, in my view the Bookings.com case has no relevance to the proceedings of the church case that is now in the U.S. Court of Appeals. As I have said, odds are strong the appeals court will uphold Judge Gergel's sweeping decision in favor of the Episcopal Church.

As for the hearing today, whatever SCOTUS decides about adding ".com" and trademarks is irrelevant to the litigation between the disassociated party in SC and the Episcopal Church. ADSC's claim about the Booking.com case is grasping at straws in a rapidly disintegrating course of litigation that they themselves started more than seven years ago. ADSC lost the big issues in court. It is only a matter of time before the Episcopal Church diocese recovers the 29 parishes, the Camp, and the other properties and assets the courts have awarded to it.  

4 MAY 2020, NOTES

Welcome, again, blog reader, on this Monday, May 4, 2020. The pandemic continues to spread and claim more and more lives around the world. I have been following the statistics in Worldometer in two-day increments trying to discern a pattern in the pandemic. Today I am going to begin following a four-day period that might be more useful as a gauge of trends. So, what do the figures of the day show? Is the trajectory of the plague going up or down?

According to Worldometer, in the past four days (April 30-May 4), there were 349,035 new cases of COVID-19 in the world, for a rising rate of 11%. In the earlier four-day period (April 26-30), the rising rate was 10% (299,213 new cases). Thus, there is a slight rise in the rate of the spread of the disease in the world. 

As for deaths in the world, there were 20,041 in the last four days, for a rising rate of 9%. This is a decrease from the earlier four days' 12% (24,843 deaths). Thus, there has been a decline in the death rate.

As for the United States, there were 124,254 new cases reported in the last four days, for am upward rate of 12%. This is up from the previous four days rate of 11% (103,676 new cases). As for deaths in the U.S., there were 6,937 in the last four days, a rising rate of 11%. This is a decline from the 14% of the earlier four-day period (7,404 deaths). The mortality rate declined considerably in the new period.

As for South Carolina, 745 new cases were reported in the last four days, for an increasing rate of 13% (now 6,626 cases). The earlier rate had been 12%. In SC, 43 people died of the virus in the last four days, a rate of 19% (275 total deaths). This was down from the 40% rise of the earlier period. Thus, the disease is spreading in the state although not at the same rate.

The story in Alabama is about the same. There were 963 new cases, a rate of 14%. The earlier period had seen 712 new cases, a rate of 11%. In AL, 28 people died of the plague in the past four days, a rate of 11%, well below the earlier rate of 23% (49 deaths). Bottom line in SC and AL, the virus is spreading in both states but the rate of infection and death may have leveled off. Still, more and more people are getting sick and dying of the disease even as both states "open" public places.

The graphs and charts on Worldometer, Wikipedia, and other places generally show a leveling off of new cases and deaths from the first of April until now. This is good news and bad news. The good news is that the distancing measures taken in April have worked to slow the progress of the disease. The bad news is that the virus continues to run unchecked sickening and killing ever more people. At best the curve has flattened. It definitely has not turned to a downhill course. Now that most states and localities are lifting, or have lifted, their social quarantines, the figures of spread and death may change. This remains to be seen. There could well be a spike in a few weeks.

The American response to the pandemic continues to be abysmal. In fact, there is no coordinated, unified, national policy to mitigate COVID-19. There are far more cases in the U.S. than in any other country, same with deaths. As for testing, the U.S. is well behind three dozen countries in testing as a percentage of the population. President Trump's administration is in turmoil. The internal struggle for the past few weeks has been between the forces (conservative) demanding re-opening sooner rather than later and those (scientists) holding out for later rather than sooner. It is clear the conservative forces have won. The scientists have been sidelined. The U.S. is "opening up" in the vast majority of places even though the highly contagious virus continues to spread unabated. It is also clear that the president's incompetency on this is hurting his chances of getting reelected. The latest polls indicate a disaster for Trump and the Republican Party in the elections just six months away. And so, Mitch McConnell is rushing to push through as many Senate confirmations of new federal judges as possible. Next year, the judiciary may well be the last political refuge of the Republicans.

The best review of what has happened in Washington in the past few weeks concerning the pandemic can be found here .

What ever happened to the new proposed guidelines of the Centers for Disease Control regarding reopening churches? It was leaked to the media last week as it was sent to he White House for approval. Nothing has been heard of it since. Apparently the administration balked at something(s) in the guidelines. There should be some word about the new CDC guidelines soon.

In spite of the dangerously incompetent response of the presidential administration to the pandemic, the people of America have arisen to the occasion under other leaders, as state governors. Just this weekend came an eloquent call for unity from a past president who knows something about responses to crises (aftermath of 9-11 was his finest hour). Find the necessary words of George W. Bush here . "We rise or fall together." Enough said.

The plague continues without let up. Always remember, we are here for the living of this hour. Peace.

GOOD SHEPHERD SUNDAY

Greetings to you, blog reader. It is May 3, 2020. Today is Good Shepherd Sunday, the fourth Sunday in the Easter season. The Gospel reading today is of the Good Shepherd. The Psalm of the day is the Twenty-Third, surely everyone's favorite.

So, let's take a break from the darkness of the COVID-19 plague ravaging our world and remember the Lord as the Good Shepherd, the one who rescues even the least among us, the lost lambs. If we ever needed the reassurance of divine love and care, it is now in this time of crisis. Taking a moment out to reflect on this thought will do us good.

A long time ago, some forty-odd years now, I had a sudden medical emergency. As I lay in the twilight zone between life and death for several days my foggy mind could recall only two Bible passages I had memorized years before, the Lord's Prayer and the Twenty-Third Psalm. I came to rely on them in my moment of need, repeating them over and over. They got me through and eventually I recovered well thanks to the God-given miracles of modern medicine. All these years later, I am still partial to these two. They still help me through tough times.

My favorite musical rendition of the Twenty-Third Psalm is the theme from "The Vicar of Dibley," one of my favorite shows. It is worth hearing again today. Find it here .

The visual image of the Good Shepherd is one of the oldest, if not the oldest in early Christianity. Well before the Christian religion was legalized in the Roman Empire (313 CE), the image of the Good Shepherd was depicted on the walls of catacombs, some of which have been preserved. Over the years, the picture of Jesus Christ as the Good Shepherd has been interpreted countless times. One of the most popular of the modern versions was that of the German romantic artist Bernard Plockhorst (1825-1907). It became very widely favored in America.

This painting, reproduced many times, became a favorite of stained glass makers. Around the year 1910, the window below was installed in St. Luke's Episcopal Church, in Jacksonville, Alabama. The name of the company that made it has been lost in time. It is Plockhorst's painting minus the flock of sheep:

So, let us take a moment today and remember the Good Shepherd. No one wanted the crisis we are in. No one caused it. But, here we are for the living of this hour. And, as the Good Shepherd, we must do our best to care for each other and for ourselves.

The Collect of the Day:

Oh God, whose Son Jesus is the good shepherd of your people; Grant that when we hear his voice we may know him who calls us each by name; and follow where he leads; who, with you and the Holy Spirit, lives and reigns, one God, for ever and ever. Amen.

Peace.

ADSC FILES BRIEF

WITH U.S. APPEALS COURT

On April 30, 2020, the Anglican Diocese of South Carolina filed "Brief of Appellants" in the United States Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit, in Richmond, Virginia. This is an appeal of the rulings of U.S. District Court Judge Richard Gergel, of Charleston. 

A brief recap:  The case was vonRosenberg v. Lawrence, brought by the Church side in 2013 to prevent the disassociated side from infringing on trademarks. In other words, the Church side claimed to be the legal and legitimate heir of the old diocese. On Sept. 19, 2019, U.S. District Court Judge Richard Gergel issued an opinion recognizing the Episcopal Church diocese as the heir of the historic diocese and declaring an injunction against the disassociated diocese. On Oct. 7, the ADSC announced it would appeal Gergel's decision. The ADSC did appeal to the U.S. Court of Appeals. It then asked Judge Gergel for a stay pending the appeal. Gergel denied this on Dec. 18. ADSC then asked the Court of Appeals for a stay. The CA denied this on Jan. 14, 2020. The two sides were then to submit briefs. On yesterday, the ADSC submitted its arguments. 

The full paper is 95 pages, but the arguments are given on pages 1-67. As everyone knows, I am not a lawyer, am not an official in any diocese, and am speaking only for myself. Here is my take on yesterday's brief.

The arguments presented form a combination of well-known positions and new rejections of Gergel's contempt holdings. We all know ADSC 's old arguments well:  ---The (Anglican) Diocese of South Carolina is the historic diocese, ---The Episcopal Church in South Carolina is a new creation formed in 2013, ---The term "Episcopal Church" is generic and cannot be copyrighted, ---the (Anglican) Diocese of South Carolina still owns the state registered marks, ---this dispute is one over property and this falls under the jurisdiction of state law and neutral principles of adjudication. To these old positions, the ADSC lawyers added that Gergel's injunction was narrow and that their party did not violate the injunction and should not have been held in contempt.

All of the old arguments have been settled in court either by the Supreme Court of South Carolina or the U.S. District Court. They are no longer issues before the court, except, of course, in this appeal of the federal decision. The SCSC ruled that, following state law and neutral principles, the Episcopal Church diocese is the owner of 29 of the 36 parishes in question as well as the Camp. This is true of the parishes because they acceded to the Dennis Canon of the Episcopal Church. Thus, there can be no argument that state law still protects the claims of the failing party. The federal court ruled that the Episcopal Church side is the legal owner of the marks and rights of the pre-schism diocese, that the Episcopal diocese is the heir of the old diocese, and that the disassociated side is a new entity formed at the schism of 2012. The important principle established by the federal court was that the Episcopal Church is a hierarchical institution entitled to govern itself.

In my view, the ADSC is almost certain to fail in its quest to overturn Judge Gergel's decisions. In the first place, yesterday's brief is amazingly weak. It offers nothing new and only repeats a few arguments all of which have already failed in court. In the second place, Judge Gergel's order of last September is virtually appeal-proof. It is a masterpiece of deep and wide jurisprudence. In it, the judge gave twenty examples where the Fourth Circuit had already ruled on the issues involved.

In addition, the Appeals Court has a history with this case. Twice the Episcopal Church went to the court asking for direction to the local district judge. The court ordered Judge Houck to proceed with the case---twice. He declined to do so, and died soon thereafter, eventually to be replaced by Judge Gergel. And, as we have seen, the court denied ADSC's petition for a stay of Gergel's injunction pending the appeal. All of this together suggests a favorable attitude of the court to the EDSC party. Thus, a combination of Gergel's powerful order, ADSC's unconvincing case, and the appeal court's record points to a probable favorable outcome for the Episcopal Church side. In order for an appeals court to overturn a lower court decision, there must be a compelling case made of errors in the lower ruling. There is none here. 

Next we can expect a reply brief from the EDSC lawyers. Then, I anticipate the appeals court will decide whether to entertain oral arguments or go to direct decision. In the two times the EDSC lawyers appealed, the court held oral arguments that were live-streamed by audio. I expect a resolution of all of this within several months.

It seems to me that, considering all that has happened, it is almost certain that the Episcopal Church will prevail in federal court. If so, I expect the church side will move expeditiously to recover the properties and assets of the historic diocese that are now in the possession of the disassociated party.      

NEW CDC GUIDELINES FOR CHURCHES
POSTED BY CNN

On today, Thursday, 30 April 2020, CNN posted on its website a copy of  the new proposal of the Centers for Disease Control guidelines on re-opening areas of life that have been closed in the pandemic. Find the proposal here . We should emphasize this is a draft of the proposal and not the final copy. It has not been approved and released to the public as of this moment. Presumably, it will be announced soon.

Find the directions for "faith communities" on pages 7-9.

Here are the main takeaways as I see them.

---Under the principle of separation of church and state, the state cannot dictate policies and practices internal to churches. This guideline is only a list of suggestions.

---Strong encouragement to continue virtual services indefinitely. 

---If churches reopen, in Phase Three, they should practice social distancing and proper disinfecting.

---Solid surfaces should be disinfected frequently.

---Everyone except children under the age of two should wear face masks except under special circumstances.

---Follow the sizes of gatherings as directed by local authorities.

---Seating should be six feet apart except for family groups. May consider seating by every other row.

---"Avoid or consider suspending use of a choir or musical ensemble..." If a choir, should be six feet apart.

---Limit sharing of items commonly shared as hymn books. Use disposable materials.

---Use a stationary collection box.

---When food is served, there should be no buffets or other shared items. Food should be in individual boxes or bags. (This will impact the revered Episcopalian institutions of the coffee hour and covered dish meals.)

I expect this draft will become official and will be released soon. At least we have a heads-up on it. 

Church officials should seriously consider these suggestions as they are commonsense guides to lessening the spread of the highly contagious virus. However, if followed to the letter, these suggestions will mean major readjustments in our familiar forms of in-person worship.

GOODBYE AND GOOD RIDDANCE

TO THE MONTH FROM HELL

Today is the last day of April in the year 2020. We will not soon forget this terrible month, an unparalleled moment of death and destruction in the course of our lives. It was the month from Hell. 

At the age of seventy-six, I can look back over an eventful lifetime. I have seen many times of trial, but I have never known a month such as this. I lived through the end of WWII, the civil rights movement, the assassinations of JFK, MLK, and RFK, 1968, the Vietnam War, the Gulf wars, and 9-11. All of these times of trial involved visible enemies. The present pandemic is a sudden attack of an enemy that is invisible in itself but highly visible in its effects and against which we have no defense at all. In all probability, it will be at least another year before we have a vaccine against the coronavirus. Meanwhile, we will go on doing what we can to deter the spread of this highly contagious and deadly disease. Many more months such as April of 2020 and we will witness human devastation such as we have never known.

We have been following the statistics for the pandemic in Worldometer in two-day increments trying to discern some pattern. The last time we checked, the figures seemed promising in that the rate of spread and of deaths seemed to be declining. Not today. In the last two days, April 28-30, in the world there were 153,750 new reported cases, a rise of 5%, the same as the earlier two-day period. However, deaths are spiking. In the last two days, there were 16,261 reported deaths, for a rising rate of 8% over the earlier two-day period which had seen a 4% rise. 

In the United States, 54,065 cases were reported in the last two days, for a rising rate of 5%, the same as the previous two-day period. However, there was a sharp increase in deaths, up 4,866, for a 9% rise, well above the earlier two-day's 5% increase. In South Carolina, there is no decrease. The state reported 268 new cases in the last two days, for a rising rate of 5%, down slightly from the earlier two-day period. SC is also reporting 55 new deaths, for a total of 232. This means the mortality rate in SC increased from 7 to 31%. Alabama is following a similar path. It reported 368 new cases in the last two days, a 6% rate, up slightly. AL reported 34 new deaths, a 15% rate, up from the earlier 7%. The bottom line for the U.S., SC, and AL, is that there is no indication COVID-19 is slowing down in its spread or its mortality. 

Looking back over the statistics for the whole month of April, one has to be shocked and appalled at what they reveal. It was indeed a month in which a Hell was created by an organism so small it is barely discernible to scientists. It is astoundingly contagious and deadly. It is almost unbelievable that this tiny microbe could wreak such destruction on humankind. 

According to Worldometer, there were 873,008 cases of COVID-19 on April 1 and 3,233,851 on the early morning of April 30. That means at least 2,360,843 people in the world fell ill with the coronavirus in the month of April. As for deaths in the world, 223,994 were reported in the month (4,532 on April 1; 228,526 on April 30). 

The figures for America are even more terrifying. In the month of April, the U.S. reported at least 875,933 new cases of COVID-19 (Apr. 1-188,639; Apr. 30-1,064,572). In other words, there was more than a five-fold increase in cases in the U.S. in the month of April. Much worse were the numbers of deaths. In the month of April, at least 57,610 Americans died of the plague (Apr. 1-4,059; Apr. 30-61,669). In all, at least 61,669 Americans have died in this pandemic, and over 57,000 of them in this one month alone. This is a daily death rate of around 2,000 people. The United States has by far the highest number of cases and of deaths in the world. The U.S. became the epicenter of the pandemic in the month of April.

The figures for South Carolina and Alabama, that we have been tracking, are also frightening. SC reported at least 4,798 new cases in the 30 days of April (1,083 to 5,881). This is more than a five-fold increase in the incidence of the pandemic in the state in the month of April. The numbers for Alabama are even more worrisome. In AL, 5,926 new cases were reported in the state for a staggering rise from 999 to 6,925 in the 30 days of April. This is almost a seven-fold increase in the state. As for deaths, SC has lost 232 to the disease in the month, with 210 of those in the month of April (22 to 232). Alabama has seen 262 deaths, 239 of those in April (23 to 262). Moreover, there is no discernible decrease in the rate of spread or of mortality in SC or AL at the present.

To the people out there who are saying this virus is nothing to worry about: it is just like the flu and will go away; we do not need to take any extra precautions as closing down public places; this is no worse than any other cause of death; I say look at the numbers that are freely available on the Internet. A good source of figures, graphs and charts is Wikipedia. Find their article on the U.S. here , their article on South Carolina here , and their article on Alabama here .

The awful truth is this is the worst natural danger to confront humankind since the Second World War ended, 75 years ago. It is highly contagious. It is highly deadly (app. 6% mortality). It is ravaging the First World and is about to hit the Third World, that is woefully unprepared to meet it. I fear the world has not seen the worst effect of this virus yet.

So, it is goodbye and good riddance to the month of April 2020. The world as we know it cannot survive many more months as this. Let us hope and pray the numbers of this pandemic start to change for the better, and soon. If not, we can expect the aftereffects across the board to be worse than anyone can imagine today. 

I am sorry to be the bearer of bad news, as has been the case for weeks now. However, we need to know the truth, as hard as it may be to take.

So, overwhelmed by the sadness of the death and destruction we have seen all around us this month, I am off to my garden for meditation and prayer. I suggest that you too find a quiet spot today on this last day of April 2020 to reflect on what has happened this month. 

As always, we need to remind ourselves we are here for the living of this hour, as difficult as it may be. We must keep the faith that good will come out of this, somehow, someway, even though we cannot imagine such today, the last day of a terrible month. Peace.  

HISTORY AND THE CORONAVIRUS

The COVID-19 pandemic has been going on in the United States for nearly three and a half months. The first case in the U.S. was documented on January 20, 2020. In the short fifteen week period since then, America has counted over a million  cases and nearly 60,000 deaths from the coronavirus. Although we are only in the early phase of what is certain to be a long plague lasting at least another year, it is not too soon to start thinking about the place of this pandemic in history, particularly in American history.

Historians have two jobs. One is to collect the empirical information of the past and present it in a reasonable narrative, that is, to give the "facts" in logical order. The other is to give meaning to the narrative, that is, to interpret the facts. The two must go together. It is the second that prompts lively discussion and disagreement among historians. For instance, on the causes of the Civil War, there are numerous credible competing theories historians have put forth.

In the pre and post-Second World War period, one of the most popular and influential historians was Arnold Toynbee who published a sweeping ten-volume work, A Study of History, from 1935 to 1961. Overall, he addressed the question of why civilizations rise and fall. After all, every civilization has fallen. Obviously, none lasted forever. Even the great ones, as ancient Rome, which lasted a thousand years, fail in time. The problem is, why do some civilizations thrive and why do some die? Toynbee's answer was in how a civilization, or a culture, responds to a challenge to it. Those who find creative and successful ways rise and excel. Those who fail to meet the challenge decline and die. This is called the Challenge and Response theory of history. Although much of Toynbee's work has been questioned by historians since his time, there is still a lot to be said about the general idea that civilizations rise and fall on how they respond to challenges confronting them.

I would argue that America faced four great challenges before this year and responded strongly to each of them leading to the nation's spectacular place in the world as the richest and most powerful nation-state in history. The first challenge was the rising power of the mother country over the colonies. The response was the creation of a nation-state when a large part of the propertied classes resolved on independence. This took 13 years to accomplish (1776-1789). The second was a challenge to define the nation-state, that is, whether it was one nation or two. This took 4 years to resolve (1861-1865). The third was the Great Depression of 1929-1941. The challenge here was to preserve capitalism and the response was by creative government intervention. The fourth was the Second World War. This was an external threat to the power of the nation-state. Virtually the entire nation arose to respond decisively in about three and a half years. This made the U.S. the world's great superpower challenged only by the Soviet Union which imploded forty-five years later leaving no rival. Borrowing from Toynbee, I would argue that modern America is the result of highly successful responses to serious challenges.

Following this theory, the United States now faces a new challenge and the outcome will depend on how the nation responds to it. To be sure, COVID-19 is not the first pandemic, or epidemic, America has faced. The worst of the lot was the great influenza pandemic of 1918 when some 600,000 Americans died. Even this disaster did not disrupt the country as COVID-19 has done. In the first place, COVID-19 is not influenza. It is a highly contagious virus that is primarily respiratory, typically producing a sort of pneumonia. However, it is also known to attack other organs in some people, particularly the brain and the kidneys. It is also deadly. It is ten times deadlier than ordinary flu. It is two and a half times deadlier than the flu strain of 1918. The impact of COVID-19 is much stronger than any previous epidemic/pandemic in the United States. Thus, it is presenting a new challenge to America. How the nation responds to this unique threat will define the future of the country.

In less than four months, COVID-19 has disrupted the country as nothing has done since the Second World War. Some one million Americans have fallen ill and 60,000 have died in this short period. The governments, from federal to local, are more or less fighting the aggressive virus with the only tool they have now, a passive/aggressive stand of social distancing. The economy is veering toward severe disruption if not collapse. Thousands of businesses face bankruptcy. Some 26m people are out of work, a record since the Great Depression. Food banks are struggling to feed hungry people. Commerce is in chaos. The food supply is under strain. Congress is frantically trying to stave off catastrophe by injecting trillions of dollars in bailouts plunging the nation ever more into debt. Even this appears to be inadequate to prevent economic and social disaster. 

So, back to the theory of Challenge and Response. The question is, how well is America doing in responding to the new challenge at hand? Judging from the raw numbers at hand, we would have to say not well. The U.S. has 4% of the world's population. It now has a third of all the world's cases of COVID-19 and at least a quarter of all the world's deaths. It has far more cases and deaths than any country. This alone should give us cause for alarm about the response to the challenge. As for testing, the richest country in the world is below at least three dozen countries in tests per thousands of population. Although the U.S. has administered the largest number of tests, it lags behind many other countries in tests as a percentage of the population. Some countries, as South Korea and Germany, have done much better at testing, and have seen relatively low death rates. In the U.S., there is no national policy on testing. Thus, the bare numbers do not give us much hope that America is responding well to the challenge at hand.

In all of the four earlier cases of challenges to America, there was a centralized authority that led the successful response. Without strong, decisive, and unified leadership neither the American Revolution, nor the Civil War, nor the Great Depression, nor the Second World War would have turned out as they did. Moreover, in every case, there was a personalization of that national leadership: Washington, Lincoln, FDR, FDR. These three are now universally regarded as the greatest American leaders. Thus, large elements of the country united behind a visible, unitary leader to answer resoundingly the challenges before them.

A great deal of our inability to unite in this new crisis comes from history. In 1990, the only rival of America, the old Soviet Union, disappeared from the scene. For the past thirty years, the United States has been unchallenged as the world's only superpower. This has been a mixed blessing. A common enemy served a useful purpose of forcing the country to unite to face the external threat. This papered over the internal divisions in the country. The Cold War, which ran from 1945 to 1990, produced its share of waste and failure, but also prompted America to excel in some common endeavors such the space program. As the Cold War ended and the external threat disappeared, there was no bond to keep the centrifugal force from slinging the various elements of the nation apart. From 1990 to the present, the U.S. has seen a great deal of bitter partisan warfare as Americans seem ever more retreating into interest tribes pitted against each other. The Democrats and Republicans have traded the White House and Congress back and forth by narrow margins ruling by razor thin majorities. A national consensus on anything seems difficult or impossible these days.

It was this state of internal hostility that brought to power Donald Trump, a popular culture star who had never held elective office. A master performer, he was brilliant at empowering grievance politics uniting elements that felt threatened by modern American culture, as the angry white working class man, southerners, and evangelicals. He skillfully combined this voting block with the traditional base of the Republican Party, big business. This combination, while not a majority of the nation, was enough to give him victory in the Electoral College. He went on to employ stick and carrot to transform the Republican Party into his personal party. As president, he personalized the office to suit himself and strengthened his ties with his "base" by aggressive public relations. His problem was that he could not reach beyond this, could not expand his base. If anything, this intensified the tribal politics that had been growing since 1990.

As President Trump created his own personal form of governing and increased ties with his base, he failed to bond with the majority of Americans. Through his presidency, a majority of people consistently disapproved of his job as president. In a sense, Trump remained a minority president. 

When the coronavirus reached America, last January, Trump treated it as it had every other problem, as a public relations issue. He tried to control the message. At first, he denied its existence. For over a month he did very little about the coming pandemic of which he was warned. Then, when he did begin to act, he tried to minimize the threat, saying it would go away soon and was nothing of concern. Finally, about six weeks in when the obvious could no longer be dismissed, Trump began to fumble toward national reactions but waffled back and forth. No single, consistent, coherent policy has emerged from the national government. In fact, he took to two-hour daily "briefings" that were little more than campaign rallies where the revered experts, Drs. Fauci and Birx, were trotted out as set decorations. Apparently, his aides pulled the plug on these performances last week after his disastrous remarks about lights and disinfectants in the body. 

The lack of strong national leadership makes this challenge unlike any of the first four that had faced the country. In fact, Congress and the governors and other local officials have been virtually on their own to try to deal with the crisis as they could. Some of the local authorities, Democrat and Republican, have done commendable jobs in spite of the vacuum at the top. This has left the country with a patch-work quilt of openings and closings that makes no sense. The question is whether this local leadership will substitute for national leadership in finding a successful response to the challenge at hand. If so, it would be the first time in American history in which this occurred.

It is still early in this pandemic. We still have a long way to go before we can make sweeping conclusions, but the preliminary view is not good. The virus is ravaging America as no other country in the world and the national government seems incapable of leading a coherent response, let alone a successful one, to the challenge. This is not to say that the American people are not responding well. I think they are, and the good work that is being done is coming from them and their local authorities. I believe in America enough to remain confident that we as a people can meet the challenge of this dark hour. It is just that it will be much more difficult without the great national leadership that we had been so fortunate to have in our first four great challenges. I still think we will find a way. We have to do so. If we do not, then following Toynbee's theory of history, we will fail to respond to the challenge and will head to decline and fall.