Tuesday, May 12, 2020

12 MAY 2020, NOTES

Greetings, blog reader, as we continue our travel together through the awful night of the coronavirus pandemic. We have been following the data in Worldometer trying to get an understanding of the course of the pandemic. We have a new four-day period, May 8-12, to add. So, is there a discernible pattern emerging? Here are the last three four-day periods:

                  Apr. 30-May 4         May 4-May 8         May 8-May 12
World        349,035, +11%        351,825, +10%      340, 654, +9%

U.S.            124,254, +12%        104,053, +9%         93,014, +7%

SC               745, +13%               516, +8%               650, +9%

AL               963, 14%                 369, +27                 1,118, +12


World         20,041, +9%           22,928, +9%          16,575, +6%

U.S.             6,937, 11%              8,336, +12%          4,834, +6%

SC               43, +19%                41, +15%               30, +9%

AL               28, +11%                79, +27%                34, +9%

Overall, these number suggest a general pattern of slight lessening in the rate of spread and mortality. In the world, there is a noticeable decline in the rate of the increase of new cases and of deaths. The same is true for America. However, in the U.S. there has been a decline in cases in NYC but increases in many other parts of the country. In SC, overall there is a lessening in the rate of increase. Even so, 7,792 cases have been reported in SC along with 346 deaths. Alabama, on the other hand, continues to show increases in spread and deaths, now with 10,164 cases and 403 deaths. 

One has to bear in mind that the county has been in semi-quarantine for nearly two months now. This may be paying off in the declines of the rates of increase. As of yesterday, most of the U.S. is ending the closures. It remains to be seen how the re-openings will influence the numbers of new cases and deaths. The scientists seem to believe numbers will go up. 

Georgia was the first state in the southeast to lift its stay at home orders, on May 1. Since then, the state has seen 7,000 new cases, a 25% rise.

Although the rate in the increase of new cases and of deaths in the U.S. may be declining, the disease continues to run rampant in most of the country. The U.S. has 4% of the world's population and a third of all cases in the world. It is about the same for deaths. In fact, the U.S. has one of the highest death rates per 1m population in the world. As for testing, there are 38 countries that test more per 1m population. Meanwhile, there is no national program to lead the country out of this public health crisis. The presidential administration is incompetent at handling the problem. The president is preoccupied with his bid for reelection. So far, the governmental response to the pandemic in the U.S. has been poor even though some localities have handled it well. As they say, the proof is in the pudding. Just look at the numbers.

Over 81,000 Americans have died of this disease, all within the past three and a half months. In the last four days, the death rate has been app. 1,000/day. If this rate continues, by the end of the summer, over 200,000 of our fellow citizens will have died of COVID-19. The scientists are predicting a "second" and deadlier wave of the virus in the fall. God help us.

Whatever happens, bear in mind, we are here for the living of this hour. Meanwhile, we are commanded to love God and our neighbors as ourselves. Peace.