A SURPRISING HORSE RACE
IN SOUTH CAROLINA
With a month and a half to go to the general election of 3 November, the red state of South Carolina is showing some curious life on the blue side. Quinnipiac released a new poll yesterday sowing the senate race in SC to be a dead heat among likely voters, 48% to 48%. Yes, believe it or not the Democratic colt Jaime Harrison is running neck and neck with the Republican war horse Lindsey Graham. I had to check the figures twice to believe it. Harrison is an African American; Graham is white. (Remember South Carolinians have elected a black man to the U.S. Senate, the sitting Senator Tim Scott.)
To be sure, President Trump is polling ahead of Biden in SC, 51% to 45%, closer than one might have expected but still a majority for reelection. At least the Dems have a fighting chance.
The poll had numerous detailed questions that were revealing. In one, regarding the candidates as "Favorable," Harrison won 47% to Graham's 44%. That means more than half of the voters of South Carolina did not see Graham favorably. In another, regarding the candidates as "Unfavorable," there was an even bigger gap. Harrison was 34% unfavorable while Graham was at 49% unfavorable. That means approximately half the voters of SC view Graham in a negative light.
I have no empirical evidence of why Graham is now seen so poorly by the people of South Carolina. He started out as a critic of Donald Trump. Before the Election of 2016, he called Trump a "kook." He said he would destroy the Republican Party. Remember, first impressions are usually right. Then, after Trump won a big victory in SC, Graham reversed himself and became one of Trump's loudest and most loyal knee-jerk supporters on Capitol Hill. Since Trump has majority popularity in SC, one would think Graham would share in that. Apparently not. This leaves one wondering why Graham is having such a hard time winning reelection.
It is not just South Carolina that is leaving me puzzled. How about Alabama, one of the deepest red states in the nation? There, recent polls have shown the Democratic incumbent Senator Doug Jones polling even with the Trump loyalist Tommy Tuberville (Auburn football coach who has never held an office), 46% to 46%. At first everyone assumed the Republican candidate would easily ride the president's coat tail into office, but now maybe not. There is no doubt Trump will win a landslide in Alabama. At this point, whether Tuberville will win is uncertain.
The Senate races in South Carolina and Alabama are fascinating, yet leaving me scratching my head. I had assumed the Republican candidates would win running away. Could it be that these states, which will vote for Trump, will also vote for Democratic senators? As they say, we shall see.
