NOTES,  16 NOVEMBER 2020

Greetings, blog reader, on Monday, November 16, 2020. It is time for our weekly check-in with the crises we have been following for months now.

PANDEMIC. As anyone who pays attention to the news media knows, there is an unprecedented surge of COVID-19 going on now in the fall. Almost all of the data about the pandemic are skyrocketing. We are in the third and most serious phase of spread of this highly contagious and deadly virus. All signs indicate this will only get worse as winter sets in.

According to our usual source, Worldometers, figures are way up in the last week. From Nov. 9 to 16, there were 4,111,478 new cases in the world, for a total of 54,940,465. This is by far the biggest jump in the course of the pandemic. The rising rate is 8%, the same as the earlier week. Deaths in the world are also surging, up 67,712 last week for a total of 1,326,314. This is a rising rate of 5%, up from the 4% of the previous week. Of course, the spread in the world is uneven, much stronger in some places than in others.

The United States continues to be the epicenter of the world's pandemic. For the first time, the U.S. reported more than a million new cases in one week, 1,078,734 to be exact. This is a rising rate of 10%, well above the 8% of the earlier week. The U.S. is reporting a total of 11,367,214 cases of COVID-19, all this year. Deaths in the U.S. are also surging. Last week, 8,133 Americans died of the plague for a total of 251,901. This is a rate of 3%, or more than a thousand deaths a day.

South Carolina is no exception to the rule. New cases in SC jumped dramatically from 6,771 in the earlier week to 9,819 last week. SC is reporting a total of 195,507 cases. As for deaths, SC reported 76 last week for a total of 4,112, a rising rate of 2%, the same as the earlier week.

Charleston County also reported a jump in new cases, 628 last week, up from the 473 of the week earlier. The county is listing a total of 18,581 cases. One hopeful sign is that deaths fell from 6 the earlier week to 3 last week. The county is now listing a total of 288 deaths from COVID-19. 

The same surge is going on in Alabama. There, a whopping 14,135 new cases were reported last week, up from the 8,795 of the previous week. Infections are spreading in AL at a rate of 7%, up from the 5% of the earlier week. Deaths in AL are also up. There were 164 reported last week, for a total of 3,248. This is a 5% increase, up from the 4% of the earlier week.

Clearly, the pandemic is surging in the world, the U.S. , and our local areas. There is no national plan to stop the spread. Here and there, some local governments are enforcing some restrictions but so far these have not stopped the spread of the disease. Experts are telling us this situation this will only get worse in the new few months. A vaccine is about to appear but will not be widely available for months to come. Until then, we are really on our own individually to deal with this health emergency the best way we can.

LITIGATION. In yesterday's blog posting, I discussed the Episcopal Church side's brief to the SC Supreme Court. The church lawyers laid out a detailed, strong argument against the Dickson ruling of June 19. They are asking the court to overturn the Dickson decision and to implement the SCSC ruling of Aug. 2, 2017 that declared the Episcopal Church ownership of the 28 (29) parishes and the Camp. 

Next, we can probably anticipate a response brief from the breakaway side. Those lawyers will certainly argue that the Dickson order must be maintained. Dickson ruled against Episcopal Church ownership of the local properties.

After that, we can expect a response from the SC Supreme Court. They may hold a hearing to listen to the oral arguments of both sides, or they may go straightaway to a written decision. Anyhow, we have probably months more of this before he SCSC issues its judgment on the Dickson order.

POLITICAL CRISIS. This is one crisis that has improved dramatically. President Trump, who had challenged all the norms of our constitutional and democratic republic was soundly rejected by the American people. He lost the clear majority of the people and of the Electoral College. Moreover, his threat to challenge the legitimacy of the election fizzled with barely a spark. His attempt at a coup d'état fell flat. Virtually every challenge in court to the election was frivolous and easily dismissed. The courts will not intervene as he had hoped; the states will abide by the rules of voting in the Electoral College. It is clear now that the Electoral College will vote on December 14 to elect Biden as president thus ending any threat to the legitimacy of the election. Trump will not concede his defeat but that will not matter after Jan. 20, 2021 when he will go down in history as the worse American president ever.

However, a word of caution. The democratic republic survived this time. It dodged the bullet on the most serious threat to it since the Civil War. Even so, 72m people voted for Trump and therefore for his attempt to steer the country toward anti-democratic minority rule by non-traditional means. He won 47% of the vote, shockingly close to half. If Trump had been more competent, focused, and disciplined, he may well have won reelection and a free hand to ramp up his extra-constitutional rule. The next Trump who comes along to subvert the constitution and attempt an autocratic, minority rule may well succeed with a different approach. This red flag is the most serious outcome of the recent election. Nearly half the American voters validated an attempt to veer toward fascism. The democratic republic survived this time but it may not in the future.

So, dear reader, we are in a hard time. We are burdened with crisis on crisis. As a student of history, I find reassurance in going back to the recent periods of greatest crisis to see how people responded to the challenges of the day and how good and great results came from these crises. The Great Depression/Second World War was the greatest challenge to America, at least since the Civil War. They were terrible, awful times of suffering and death. Yet, they were followed by the greatest period of national flowering ever. The second half of the Twentieth Century saw the spectacular fulfillment of the American idea, in my opinion, the greatest democratic republic in human history. So, do not assume this dark hour will last and will bring us down. History tells us it will not. It may be hard to see in the darkness we have now, but I believe we will survive and even thrive. Peace.

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Meanwhile, if we take a break and walk about my garden this morning we find: 

Japanese Fatsia (Fatsia japonica). This is the bloom, or the flower, of Fatsia. I have had this plant a dozen years. This is the first year it has bloomed. Fatsia is a tropical plant that will thrive outdoors in the south with some protection. This one is perfectly happy in this spot.

Professor Sargent camellia, one of the best early flowering japonica camellias. Nothing perks up cold weather days as camellia.

Japanese Silver Grass (Miscanthus sinensis) in front of Burning Bush and Grancy Grey Beard. Ornamental grasses are at their showiest in the autumn.