THE DECLINE OF 

THE WHITE AMERICAN EVANGELICALS

Before the schism of 2012 in South Carolina, the schismatic-prone diocesan leadership aggressively and repeatedly promoted several major assertions among the faithful. These claims were meant to give reason for people to support the coming break from the Episcopal Church; and in that regard they worked well. Most churchpeople in the pre-schism diocese bought these promises without question. In time after the schism, however, it became clear these assertions were false, partially false, or serious exaggerations of the truth. One major untruth was the claim that the diocese was a sovereign and independent entity that could leave the Episcopal Church at will (the federal court overruled that in 2019). Another was that the people could leave the Episcopal Church and take the property with them (the SC Supreme Court overruled that in 2017). Yet another was that the Episcopal Church was dying ("a comatose patient on life support," according to Mark Lawrence) because of its "liberal" changes, and that "orthodox" religion would flourish. Just as the others, that claim turned out to be wildly erroneous.

The people who left the Episcopal Diocese of South Carolina in 2012 formed a new religious entity known as the Anglican Diocese of South Carolina. The ADSC has experienced a serious loss of active membership since the schism and this is borne out in their own published statistics. In the annual parochial statistical reports, a "communicant" is a person who attends church at least once a year. If we look at the 50 local congregations of the parishes and missions that went along with the schism of 2012, here is what we find for their communicants:

2011---21,993 (2011 was the last full year before the schism of 2012)

2014---16,361

2015---15,556

2016---13,877

2018---12,126

2019---11,457

This is a decline of 10,536 communicants between 2011 and 2019, a fall of 48%. In other words, the ADSC churches have about half the number of communicants they had before the schism.

All of the large parishes of ADSC lost significant numbers of communicants after the schism. St. Helena's, of Beaufort, declined from 1,737 in 2011 to 827 in 2019, or more than half. St. Michael's, of Charleston, fell from 1,847 in 2011 to 926 in 2019, or about half. St. Philip's, of Charleston, dropped from 2,677 in 2011 to 1,370 in 2019, also about half. Even the supposedly fastest growing congregation, Church of the Cross, in Bluffton, slipped from 1,701 communicants in 2011 to 1,631 in 2019.

Meanwhile, as the breakaway group was losing members steadily, the Episcopal Diocese of South Carolina saw the opposite occur after 2012. It gained members ever year after the schism, for a total of a 22% rise.

Bottom line---the pre-schism assertion of the diocesan leaders that "orthodox" religion would flourish in membership while the Episcopal church would shrivel turned out to be wrong. In fact, the opposite occurred. Of the five dioceses where the majority of people voted to leave the Episcopal Church, four (Pitt., Quincy, San Joaquin, SC) have seen drastic membership declines. Only one (Ft. Worth) has show any increase and that is because it has taken in many local churches beyond the geographical boundaries of the old diocese.

Now comes a major new scientific study that shows a serious decline among White Americans who identify as Evangelical Christians. Everyone would agree that the Anglican Diocese of South Carolina is in the Evangelical camp along with the likes of the Southern Baptists, Assembles if God, and most of the "non-denominational" megachurches. 

On the contrary, it is the identification of the White Mainline Christians that is on the rise. Mainstream denominations would be the likes of the Episcopal Church, the United Methodist Church, the Presbyterian Church USA, and the Evangelical Lutheran Church. It is true that these denominations have lost members over the last half-century, but the conventional wisdom that these were fatally doomed to extinction has turned out to be way off base. 

The monumental new study is "The 2020 Census of American Religion" by the PRRI (Public Religion Research Institute). Find it here .

Look at Figure 2 of the study. This chart of trends from 2006 to 2020 among White people is most revealing of changing religious identifications of Americans. White Evangelical Christians declined from 23% of the U.S. population in 2006, to 14.5% in 2020. This is close to half drop in the last 14 years. White Catholics dropped from 16% in 2006 to 11.7% in 2020. Identification as White Mainline Christians went from 17.8% of Americans in 2006 to 16.4% in 2020. However, from 2016 to 2020, the percentage rose steadily from 12.8% to 16.4%. This makes it the only demographic in the chart to be rising in recent years. Thus, while fewer White Americans are now identifying as Evangelicals, more are identifying with the Mainline churches. Other charts in the study deal with non-White populations. 

The number of White Americans who identified with no religious affiliation arose from 16% in 2006 to 23.3% in 2020. However, there was actually a down shift from a high of 25.5% in 2018 to 23.3% in 2020. So, while White Mainline identity moved upwards in the last few years, the "nones" declined along with the Evangelicals. In fact, if we look at only the last few years, the only line moving upwards is that of the White Mainline. All the others are falling.

The takeaway from all this is that Evangelical (people who self-identify as "orthodox," Born-Again, Biblical, etc.) religion among American Whites is in relentless decline. On the other hand, at least in the last few years, more and more White Americans are identifying with the Mainline churches (e.g. the Episcopal Church). 

There are two points of caution with this. In the first place, the study does not delve into the reasons for these changes. Why are Americans turning away from Evangelical religion and toward the Mainline churches? And secondly, the data of the past do not necessarily predict the future although long-term trajectories should not be dismissed as meaningless.

For a thoughtful review of the meaning of the data in this study, see the article by Dana Butler Bass, "America is No Longer as Evangelical as it was---and here's why." Find it here .

It is entirely clear that the idea that Evangelical Christianity would grow in membership while the Mainline churches would continue to decline was false. The scientific data we have now prove otherwise. Thus, one of the main pillars on which the schism in South Carolina was built was made of clay and not stone. The leaders of the pre-schism diocese led most people of the diocese to believe certain claims that we now know to be hollow. The promise of growth was one of them.