NEW DATA FROM THE ANGLICAN DIOCESE OF SOUTH CAROLINA SHOW CONTINUING DECLINE

The Anglican Diocese of South Carolina has published its membership data for the year 2020, the most recent empirical information we have about the life and health of the ADSC. Find it here . The questions at hand are: What is the trajectory of membership change in the diocese? What effect did the schism of 2012 have on membership in the ADSC? What do the data suggest to us about the future of the ADSC?

There are several sets of metrics provided by the ADSC that will help us answer these questions.

BAPTIZED MEMBERS. (This is not a reliable measure of church membership because it counts every baptized person who had any connection to the parish whether he or she ever attended church.) Nevertheless, here are the ADSC figures for the end of the year:

2012---23,455

2013---23,181

2014---22,953

2015---22,149

2016---21,953

2017---20,602

2018---20,763

2019---20,195

2020---19,597

Thus, in the 8 years after the schism of 2012, ADSC reported a loss of 3,858 baptized members, or -16.45%. 

The trajectory is clear even though these numbers are not accurate. They are inflated as effects of the schism. The actual numbers of baptized members are much lower.

COMMUNICANTS. A "Communicant" is defined as anyone who took communion at least once in the year. This is a more reliable metric than "baptized membership." "Communicants" is sometimes called "active members." Here are the numbers of communicants reported by the ADSC:

2012---17,812

2013---17,798

2014---16,361

2015---15,556

2016---14,694

2017---13,291

2018---12,126

2019---11,457

2020---11,337

Thus, in the 8 years after the schism of 2012, ADSC reported a loss of 6,475 communicants, or -36.6%. This means ADSC lost a third of its active members since the schism. 

AVERAGE SUNDAY ATTENDANCE. "Baptized members" and "Communicants" measure membership. What about the numbers of people sitting in the pews on Sundays? This is measured by Average Sunday Attendance (ASA). Here are the ASA numbers as reported by the ADSC:

2012---9931

2013---9292

2014---9325

2015---9085

2016---9014

2017---8905

2018---8875

2019---8980

2020---8215

Thus, in the 8 years after the schism, ASA of the ADSC fell 1,716 or -17.28%. 

The figures above are for the diocese as a whole. What about the individual churches of the ADSC? How has their membership changed? Let us look at "Communicants," the most meaningful measure of active membership in a parish. For this, we will look at the number of Communicants in 2011, just before the schism of 2012, and compare it with the latest figures, of 2020.

Numerous parishes lost around half, or more, of their active membership.

ST. PHILIP'S, of Charleston. 2,677 (2011)---1,393 (2020). -1,284; -48%.

ST. MICHAEL'S, of Charleston. 1,847 (2011)---976 (2018, last report). -871; -47%.

ST. HELENA'S, of Beaufort. 1,737 (2011)---849 (2020). -888; -51%.

HOLY CROSS, Sullivans Island. 2,540 (2011)---945 (2020). -1,595; -63%.

CHRIST CHURCH, Mt. Pleasant. 935 (2011)---334 (2020). -601; -64%.

OLD SAINT ANDREW'S, West Ashley. 962 (2011)---413 (2020). -549; -57%.

ST. LUKE'S, Hilton Head. 951 (2011)---247 (2020). -704; -74%.

ST. JOHN'S, Johns Island. 566 (2011)---265 (2020). -301; -53%.

HOLY COMFORTER, Sumter. 525 (2011)---203. -322; -61%.

TRINITY, Myrtle Beach. 595 (2011)---156 (2020). -439, -74%.

Numerous other local churches lost between 10 and 50% of their active memberships between 2011 and 2020. Examples:

Church of the Cross, Bluffton. -11%.

Good Shepherd, West Ashley. -50%.

Trinity, Edisto. -34%.

St. Paul's, Summerville. -22%.

Christ/St. Paul's, Yonges Island. -26%.

St. John's, Florence. -25%.

St. Bartholomew's, Hartsville. -26%.

St. Paul's, Conway. -18%.

Resurrection, Surfside. -11%.

Redeemer, Orangeburg. -31%.

Trinity, Pinopolis. -42%.

St. Matthias, Summerton. -41%.

What reasonable conclusions can we draw from these empirical data of the ADSC? Here are the conclusions I see:

---The Anglican Diocese of South Carolina is in severe and relentless decline. It has lost a third of its active membership since the schism of 2012.

---The ADSC is in decline in virtually every other metric. 

---All of the large parishes suffered serious to severe losses of active memberships.

---Most of the medium and small local churches saw minor to severe losses of membership.

---Only a handful of parishes reported membership gains.

---There is no reason to believe the alarming and relentless decline of the diocese and the parishes will abate.

---The ADSC and most of its parishes will soon start experiencing, if they have not already, the consequences of the sharp declines in sources of support.

---The assertion that the schism was a popular event is highly doubtful.

---A great many people have voted with their feet. They have rejected the schism of 2012.

---The ADSC has failed to draw in enough new people to offset the loss of members. It is not attractive to the people of South Carolina as a whole. 

---ADSC's long-term viability as an independent entity is highly dubious. Judging from the recent election of bishop coadjutor in the ADSC, one may reasonably expect the ADSC to merge with the Anglican Diocese of the Carolinas.

Nine years out now from the schism of 2012, we can make the reasonable assessment that the schism was a failure by every empirical measure. The aftermath has been a tragedy, for both sides, but mainly for the people who put their trust in wrong-headed leadership. The people of ADSC have paid a high price to support the bad decisions their leaders made in their names. They are paying two sets of lawyers, diocesan and parochial, so far with nothing to show. The SC supreme court ruled in favor of the Episcopal Church as did the federal court. Even if ADSC should prevail in both of these, the people of ADSC will still face the problem of propping up collapsing institutions. Fewer people will pay more. Even if ADSC should win in both state and federal courts, the schism would still be a disaster of bad choices freely made. 

It is remarkable the capacity of some people to inflict pain on others when there is so much unavoidable pain in the world.

Of course, in the bigger picture all of this is just a lot of bickering about how to rearrange the deck chairs on the Titanic. The ship of organized religion is sinking. We are all going down. One after another, the Pew Research Center studies show precipitous drops in popular attachment to churches, and religion in general. Moreover, this is generational. People under thirty nowadays are fleeing like mad from organized religion. The "nones" is growing much faster than any other measure, particularly among the young. Church membership is collapsing across the board. So, in a generation or two, the schism of 2012 may well be irrelevant. The issues of it are already archaic to most people. To break up a church in order to keep gays and women from equality and inclusion in the life of the church seems ludicrously antique in the broader culture of modern America.

What a waste. What a shame. What a tragedy. Why did the schism happen? Because some people failed to follow the Great Commandment. They did not love their neighbors as themselves. They choose instead to be like the Pharisees. 

But nothing is beyond redemption. Minds can change. Hearts can change. We have seen glimmers of hopeful change among the people in the ADSC in the recent diocesan self-study and in the actions of some clergy. The schism of 2012 was not a popular uprising. It was an event planned and carried out by a small group of the old diocesan leadership and presented to the people. 

We see now the schism was a failure. The people of the ADSC could redeem that failure if they should have the will.