THE WORLD IS ON THE RAZOR'S EDGE

What happens in the next several weeks may well determine the rest of the Twenty-First Century. Humankind is facing a crisis the likes of which it has not seen since the end of the Second World War in 1945. What comes out of this moment will no doubt shape how the world functions for the rest of our lifetimes, our children's, our grand-children's. I have studied history, in earnest, for the past 68 years, and I must confess, I see plenty of reason why we should be alarmed today.

On 24 February, the government of Russia launched an unprovoked armed invasion of a peaceful neighbor, Ukraine, in an effort to take control of the country and install a friendly (puppet) government. In other words, the Russian goal was to seize Ukraine, a sovereign and independent nation-state. 

The Russians have not achieved their goal even though they have inflicted massive death and destruction on the victim country. The question is, what will the Russian government do now?

As I see it, President Putin has three broad choices: 1-continue the war as is, 2-negotiate a peace, 3-escalate the war. 

Since the first option has not gone well, its future is problematical for the Russians. Russia certainly has the military power, and so far the free hand, to terrorize the people, destroy the cities and infrastructure, and kill countless civilians. By bombs, missiles, and artillery, it could go on laying waste to Ukraine. The end result would be for Russia to gain physical control over land but not the people.

As for the second option, negotiated peace, we will return momentarily.

The third option is for Putin to escalate the war. It is clear that the war has not gone well for Putin. Many fear that as he is cornered, he will double down and expand the war to justify his original action. There are several worrying signs of this. One is a new report that he has turned to China for military assistance. Another is that he is charging Ukraine with developing "weapons of mass destruction," aka chemical and biological warfare. This is flatly false and is probably projection of his own intent. Yet another is that on yesterday, the Russians launched a massive attack on a Ukrainian military base only a dozen miles from the Polish border. Poland is a member of NATO. Bringing in China, using gas attacks on civilians, and attacking NATO would move the world at least to the brink of a world war. Putin certainly knows this. A world war would smother the truth of his failed campaign in Ukraine.

The obvious solution to the problems of the first and third options is a peace settlement. To say this will be difficult is a gross understatement. It will be extremely difficult, but still in the realm of possibility. We have to try. We must try.

Do not get me wrong now. In no way would I ever defend Putin. He should be charged, arrested, and tried for war crimes. However, I do think we have to look at Russian history that goes far, far back before Putin. Deep in the Russian psyche is a visceral fear of invasion from the west, and for very good reason. Twice in recent history, not once but twice, Russia bore the brunt of massive attack from the great power of the west, and twice at tremendous cost to herself, Russia absorbed the assault, repulsed and defeated the invader. The Russians have plenty of reason to fear any military force to their west.

The first of these came from Napoleon, the second from Hitler. Both times, the Russian government started out trying to deal in peace with the new rising power of the west. As for Napoleon, the Tsar Alexander I met him in 1807 and made a supposedly permanent peace treaty. Five years later, Napoleon assembled the largest army known up to that time and launched an unprovoked invasion of Russia. The Russians lost battle after battle and hundreds of thousands of soldiers, scorched their own earth, burned their own cities, and refused to surrender. As winter bore down, Napoleon called for a hasty retreat from Moscow. This turned into one of the great military disasters of history. Ten percent of his army survived. Three years later, Napoleon was shipped off to St. Helena under house arrest for the rest of his life. His greatest mistake was invading Russia.

Hitler, a corporal in WWI, thought he was a better general than Napoleon (he was not). He was sure he could win where N had failed. As N, Hitler signed a peace treaty with Russia, the Non-Aggression Pact of 1939. Stalin relaxed as the Germans rolled across western Europe, 1939-41. Again, as N, Hitler threw out the peace treaty and launched the largest invasion in history against Russia, some three million soldiers (more than three times N's army). Caught off guard and unprepared, the Russians could only fall back at first. As with N, they absorbed the fierce blow, and in time launched a counter-attack and, at staggering cost, drove the western invaders out and to defeat and destruction. As the Russians closed in on Berlin, Hitler committed suicide. This was after some 24,000,000 people had been killed in the Soviet Union in WWII, by far the most of any country in the war. 

My point is that the Russian people have good reason to fear the predominate military power to their west. In the Nineteenth and Twentieth centuries, they were victims of unprovoked and vastly destructive wars by the great powers of the west and suffered losses that are now almost impossible to fathom. Let us bear that in mind today.

NATO is a defensive alliance. It was set up to defend its member states from attack from an outsider. It was, and is, no threat to Russia, or any other country. In the context of history, however, we should understand if the Russian people are wary of NATO. Here, the great power of the west, the United States this time, has assembled a coalition of countries to the west of Russia. Both Napoleon and Hitler at first claimed they were no threat, and look at what happened. They were really the worst threats imaginable.

So, when Putin talks about a neutral Ukraine, he is drawing from a certain place in Russian history and I think we should be sensitive to that. This, of course, in no way excuses what he is doing, but it does raise what seems to me to be the core of any settlement in the present crisis. If there is to be an "off ramp" for Putin, it has to involve Russian security along its western borders. Somehow, someway, the world has to assure Russia that it will not be invaded by the great power of the west in the Twenty-First Century.

We must find a peaceful solution to the insane disaster occurring in Ukraine today. I see tiny glimmers of hope today. Otherwise, continuing on the war as it is or expanding it will only compound, to whatever degree, the already colossal evil at hand. 

As everyone says, Putin must have an "off ramp" to end this war. I think that ramp is tied in with world history. It is certainly tied in with Russian history. Any settlement has to be done in the context of history.

As matters stand now, the next couple of weeks will be pivotal in world history. The worst war in seventy-five years could well devolve into World War III. Let us hope and pray for a negotiated peace that will be truly a peace on which everyone can rely. The alternative could be armageddonesque catastrophe.