DETAILS OF ADSC MEMBERSHIP CHANGES IN THE DECADE AFTER THE SCHISM

As the Anglican Diocese of South Carolina prepares for its annual meeting in March, it is worthwhile to review membership trends in the decade since the schism of 2012. We know that the ADSC has seen a significant decline in membership overall, but what can we tell about the details of the decline provided by the ADSC in its parochial REPORT on its website? Quite a bit as it turns out.

How many people have left the (50-53) local churches of the diocese yearly and how many have arrived in the post-schism decade of 2013-2022?

For this, we will consider the "Baptized members" category as listed in the annual parochial reports. This is not the best metric of church membership since it includes every baptized person who had any relationship with the local church regardless of whether he or she ever attended a service. Nevertheless, we will give the benefit of the doubt to ADSC and use the quoted numbers of "Baptized members" for convenience. Here are the reported totals per year with percentage change.

2013 - 23,181     -274 (-1%)

2014 - 22,953     -228 (-1%)

2015 - 22,149     -804 (-4%)

2016 - 21,953     -196 (-1%)

2017 - 20,602     -1,351 (-6%)

2018 - 20,763     +161 (+1%)

2019 - 20,195     -568 (-3%)

2020 - 19,597     -598 (-3%)

2021 - 19,712     +115 (+1%)

2022 - 18,130     -1,582 (-8%)

The data show that overall, the ADSC declined by 5,051 baptized members in the decade after the schism. This was a fall of 22%.

The parochial reports also give the numbers of persons being baptized, confirmed, and received by local churches. Adding all of these together in the decade, we arrive at 7,520. 

The number of baptized members leaving the local churches was much greater than the 7,520 number of baptized, confirmed, and received. This would account for the net loss of 5,051, or 22% in the decade. It is impossible to know the exact number of people leaving the local churches because some of the people listed in "confirmations" and "received" would already have been counted among the baptized members. 

If we were to count "baptisms," "confirmations," and "received" all as new members, that would mean 12,571 baptized members left the churches in the decade, a number no doubt unreliable. The real differential between members added and members deleted would still be much more than the net loss of 5,051 would show. I expect the actual number of people who left ADSC churches in the decade was in the 8,000-9,000 range. The additions of new members would bring the final loss down to the 5,000 range. 

Bottom line: there were far more people leaving ADSC churches than joining them in the decade after the schism. 

Conclusions:

---The ADSC is in precipitous and ongoing decline in membership. In the decade after the schism, there were only two years of (modest) membership gains. Overall, the ADSC lost one in five of its baptized members in the decade after formation of the ADSC in 2012.

---The ADSC has a serious problem of retention of membership. The number of people who left far exceeded the number of new members.

---In 2017 and again in 2022, the number of baptized members leaving ADSC churches exceeded 1,000. The reasons for the high departures in these two particular years, and only in these years, remain unknown. As for 2017, the major event that year was the decision of ADSC to join the Anglican Church in North America. The ACNA is an independent denomination not in the Anglican Communion. The lead event of 2022 was the consecration of a new bishop, "Chip" Edgar. He had not been a part of the ADSC. The connections between these events, if any, and the unusually high departures in these years would be worthwhile to pursue.

---The rate of decline accelerated after 2016. The problem is not getting better. It is getting worse.

---At 18,000+ baptized members the ADSC is still a viable religious institution although it has declined from the 23,181 members right after the schism. However, at this rate of decline, questions of institutional viability will soon arise and leadership may have to consider alternate paths for the future such as uniting with the ACNA Diocese of the Carolinas, Bishop Edgar's former home.

---Before the schism of 2012, the Diocese of South Carolina counted 29,236 baptized members. If we combine the two dioceses today we arrive at a total of 25,606 baptized members. This is a drop of 3,630, or 12%. The loss is not balanced between the two parts as the Episcopal diocese has grown by the same rate as the new diocese has declined.

In considering the Episcopal Church schism in South Carolina, we are now in the "results," or last, phase of its history (Causes/Events/Results). Almost all of the big issues have been settled (in the Events phase). 

To summarize, here is my snapshot view of the results of the schism as they appear today:

1. On the whole, the schism was a draw between the two sides. The secessionists got the bulk of the local churches while the Episcopal diocese got the historic diocese and its assets.

2. The new diocese has seen relentless decline in membership. The historic diocese has seen a near constant rise in membership.

3. Most of the assertions and projections the schismatic leaders made before the schism turned out to be wrong. The diocese did not leave the Episcopal Church. The courts ruled that the historic diocese did not secede from the Episcopal Church and that the breakaways in fact formed a new entity. All the local churches in the schism did not leave TEC property in hand. The courts ruled that eight of the 36 local churches in question did not leave the Episcopal Church. Moreover, the new diocese is not part of the Anglican Communion.

4. The ADSC has established a well-known identity for itself of homophobia and misogyny by forcing an anti-gay "Statement of Faith" on the whole diocese in 2015 and by joining the Anglican Church in North America in 2017, a denomination created to keep gays and women from equal rights and inclusion in the church. Homophobia and misogyny form the commonly held definition of the ADSC among the general population of lower South Carolina.

5. The schism was a local aspect of the culture war raging in America between the forces of democratic revolution (Episcopal) and the forces of counter-revolution (anti-Episcopal). The direct cause was the schismatics' opposition to equal rights and inclusion of homosexuals in the life of the church. The schismatics' claim that it was only about "theology" was a trumped-up diversion that fell flat.

6. The parochial reports only provide data. They do not tell us the reasons for the changes in numbers. If the leaders of the ADSC want their experiment to succeed, it behooves them to find out the reasons for the ominous decline. If the decade after the schism portends the future, the very existence of the ADSC is at stake.

7. The greatest success of the schism has been for the secessionists to diminish the Episcopal Church in lower South Carolina, once an historic bastion of Episcopalianism in America (Charleston used to be the most Episcopalian city in the country). A diocese, one of the original nine of the Episcopal Church, that once counted 29,000+ members, now lists 7,000+. Considering that the first goal of the anti-Episcopal movement that began in the 1990's was to destroy, or greatly weaken, the Episcopal Church in order to reduce its "liberal" influence in American life, we would have to conclude that the secessionists in South Carolina met a certain amount of success. Their problem now is how to turn that success to their own benefit.

8. The challenge of the secessionists today is how to morph its negative origins and image into something positive. Given their history and identity, this is a daunting task. So far, they have not built a greater church in coastal South Carolina, one of the fastest growing parts of America. The data show that. Whether they can reverse the trend of decline is the question at hand.