A CLOSER LOOK
AT DSC'S MEMBERSHIP STATISTICS
(with Addendum, Mar. 11)
(with Addendum, Mar. 11)
On Mar. 8, I added a post, "New Membership Statistics from the Diocese of South Carolina." This included the newly released figures of the year 2016. I have gone over the numbers in detail again in hopes of getting a more precise view of the impact of the schism on the membership of the secessionist diocese. 50 of the 71 parishes and missions of the old diocese went along with the break from the Episcopal Church. Many of these churches held parish votes to decide whether to go along. The majority of the local churches adhered to Bp Lawrence. Often the votes were lopsided. That would leave one thinking the break had been popular.
We now have the detailed local church statistics from before the schism of 2012 and 4 years after the schism. What pattern can be discerned about shifts in membership in the diocese? What might these numbers suggest about the future?
The statistics from the year 2011 tell us much about the state of the old diocese in the last full year before the schism. We will use this year as our measure of the diocese before the schism. We now have the parochial statistics for the year 2016, 4 full years after the schism. First, I will provide the numbers for each of the (45) local churches that reported in 2011 and 2016. These numbers came from the official journal of the diocesan convention, 2012 (find here , pp. 129-31) and 2017 (find here , pp. 149-52). We will use the figures as they were provided.
I am using the number of "communicants." A communicant was one who attended church at least once a year.
First, parish or mission, then number of communicants for 2011 and 2016, then change in number, and finally change by percentage. For instance, St. Helena's had 1,737 communicants in 2011, and 880 in 2016. That was a decline of 857 communicants, or down 49% from before the schism. Thus, St. Helena's lost about half its communicant number as a result of the schism.
St. Helena's, Beaufort 2011-1,737; 2016-880; -857; -49%
Church of the Cross, Bluffton 2011-1,701; 2016-1,790; +89; +1%
St. Luke's, Hilton Head 2011-951; 2016-581; -370; -39%
Holy Trinity, Grahamville 2011-98; 2016-97; -1; -1%
St. Jude's, Walterboro 2011-200; 2016-221; +21; +1%
Cathedral of St. Luke and St. Paul, Charleston 2011-305; 2016-220; -85; -28%
St. John's Chapel, Charleston 2011-39; 2016-53; +14; +36%
St. Michael's, Charleston 2011-1,847; 2016-915; -932; -50%
St. Philip's, Charleston 2011-2,677; 2016-1,069; -1,608; -60%
Christ Church, Mt. Pleasant 2011-935; 2016-328; -607; -65%
Holy Cross, Sullivans Island 2011-2,540; 2016-900; -1,640; -65%
Holy Trinity, Charleston 2011-96; 2016-103; +7; +7%
Old Saint Andrew's 2011-962; 2016-446; -516; -54%
St. Andrew's Mission, West Ashley 2011-38; 2016-55; +17; +45%
St. James, James Island 2011-612; 2016-500; -112; -18%
Good Shepherd, Charleston 2011-302; 2016-245; -57; -19%
Trinity, Edisto 2011-183; 2016-157; -26; -14%
St. James, Goose Creek 2011-12; 2016-15; +3; +25
Our Saviour, Johns Island 2011-195; 2016-170; -25; -13%
St. John's, Johns Island 2011-566; 2016-654; +88; +16%
St. Paul's, Summerville 2011-773; 2016-538; -235; -30%
Christ/St. Paul's, Yonges Island 2011-330; 2016-260; -70; -21%
St. Paul's, Bennettsville 2011-61; 2016-65; +4; +7%
St. David's, Cheraw 2011-113; 2016-34; -79; -70%
St. Matthew's, Darlington 2011-139; 2016-148; +9; +6%
St. Barnabas, Dillon 2011-47; 2016-37; -10; -21%
All Saints, Florence 2011-144; 2016-130; -14; -10%
Christ Church, Florence 2011-49; 2016-2; -47; -96%
St. John's, Florence 2011-453; 2016-423; -30; -7%
St. Bartholomew's, Hartsville 2011-160; 2016-135; -35; -22%
Advent, Marion 2011-27; 2016-16; -7; -26%
Holy Comforter, Sumter 2011-525; 2016-283; -242; -46%
Holy Cross, Stateburg 2011-177; 2016-94; -83; -47%
St. Paul's, Conway 2011-270; 2016-202; -68; -25%
Prince George Winyah, Georgetown 2011-450; 2016-645; +195; +43%
Trinity, Myrtle Beach 2011-595; 2016-284; -311; -52%
Resurrection, Surfside 2011-282; 2016-287; +5; +2%
Holy Apostles, Barnwell 2011-91; 2016-95; +4; +4%
Epiphany, Eutawville 2011-75; 2016-85; +10; +13%
St. Matthew's, Ft. Motte 2011-71; 2016-94; +23; +32%
Redeemer, Orangeburg 2011-265; 2016-183; -82; -31%
St. Paul's, Orangeburg 2011-19; 2016-17; -2; -11%
Redeemer, Pineville 2011-82; 2016-78; -4; -5%
Trinity, Pinopolis 2011-184; 2016-159; -25; -14%
St. Matthias, Summerton 2011-128; 2016-144; +15; +13
Summary:
45 DSC parishes and mission reported in 2011 and 2016.
There were 30 losses and 15 gains. Thus, 2/3 of the local churches reported losses of members.
The biggest gainers by number:
Prince George Winyah, +195
Cross, Bluffton, +89
St. John's, Johns Island +88
The biggest gainers by percentage:
St. Andrew's Mission, +45%
St. John's Chapel, +36%
St. Matthew's, Ft. Motte, +32
The biggest losers by numbers:
Holy Cross, Sullivans Island, -1,640
St. Philip's, Charleston, -1,608
St. Michael's, Charleston, -932
St. Helena's, Beaufort, -857
Christ Church, Mt. Pleasant, -607
Old St. Andrew's, -576
St. Luke's, Hilton Head, -370
Trinity, Myrtle Beach, -311
Holy Comforter, Sumter, -242
St. Paul's, Summerville, -235
The biggest losers by percentage:
Churches that lost half or more of their communicants:
St. David's, Cheraw, -70%
Christ Church, Mt. Pleasant, -65%
Holy Cross, Sullivans Island, -65%
St. Philip's, Charleston, -60%
Trinity, Myrtle Beach, -52%
St. Michael's, Charleston, -50%
Other major declines:
St. Helena's, Beaufort, -49%
Holy Cross, Stateburg, -47%
Holy Comforter, Sumter, -46%
Advent, Marion, -41%
St. Luke's, Hilton Head, -39%
SUMMARY:
The total communicant number for the reporting DSC parishes and missions in the year before the schism was 21,506.
The number in 2016, four years after the schism, was 13,877.
These DSC churches reported a loss of 7,629 communicants.
This is a decline of 35%.
In sum, DSC lost about a third of its members as a result of the schism.
A word of caution about these statistics. These were provided by the local churches themselves. There was no verification. A few were probably errors (Christ Church of Florence no doubt has more than 2 communicants; St John's of Johns Island reported as many communicants as baptized members). Nevertheless, the statistics give us a clear broad picture of the impact of the schism on the churches that followed Lawrence in the schism. Most importantly, they show trends.
Most of the major losses occurred in the Charleston metro area as to be expected. It is the population center of the diocese.
As far as the future goes, there are several probabilities.
---If the DSC continues to lose members at this rate, it will cease to exist in the foreseeable future. Even if it continues on, it will face shrinking numbers, and income. If it does wind up with 6 parishes, its viability as an institutional entity will be in doubt.
---The popular support for the schism was not deep. Indeed, a third of the people in the schismatic churches bolted.
---The Episcopal Church diocese, in all likelihood will regain possession of the 29 parishes in question, I think probably by the end of this year. If handled well, many of the communicants in these churches will remain with the Episcopal Church although the DSC has been underway since last Dec. 1 with a plan to move members out into new communities beyond the walls. The statistics above suggest there is not a very wide or deep commitment to the schism left in the DSC.
---Considering that many parishes have suffered massive losses in membership (not to mention finances), rebuilding these will be a major challenge for the Episcopal Church after the return of the 29 parishes.
After posting the above, I wondered if going back several years before the schism would help us get a clearer picture of membership changes in the DSC parishes. Therefore, I looked at the membership figures for 2005, 7 years before the schism and 6 years before the data given above, of 2011. I also studied the statistics for the year 2008, the point at which Bp Lawrence began his episcopacy. If we can see the trends over the years before the schism we would get a better overall picture of the impact of the schism on membership. For instance, if a parish had significant and consistent membership loss all the while, its decline after the schism may have been from long term factors unrelated to the schism, as population shifts.
Again, we are looking at only the reports from the 50 parishes and missions that adhered to Lawrence in the schism of 2012. Here are the totals of communicants they reported:
2005 - 17,981
2008 - 19,338
2011 - 21,506
2016 - 13,877
This tells us that overall the churches were gaining members steadily in the half-dozen years before the schism. Between 2005 and 2008, communicant numbers jumped 1,357, or up 7%. From 2008 to 2011, numbers rose by another 2,168, or 10%. Thus, for the 7 years before the schism, there was a healthy and steady rise in membership of the churches that followed Lawrence in the schism. Then, membership fell precipitously.
It is most instructive to look at the major parishes that seemed to be most impacted by the schism.
St. Helena's of Beaufort lost nearly half its communicants after the schism. Before the schism, however, it was the opposite. From 1,200 communicants in 2005, it grew to 1,737 in 2011, an impressive gain in just 6 years. Therefore, we can reasonably conclude the schism was the factor of change there. (2005-1,200; 2016-880)
St. Michael's of Charleston was much the same. From 1,349 communicants in 2005, it rose to 1,847 in 2011, a 37% gain. However, after it schism it fell by half. Again, it seems that the schism was the turning point there as well. (2005-1,349; 2016-915)
St. Philip's of Charleston, had an eye-popping gain between 2005 and 2011 (if these figures can be believed) from 1,289 to 2,677. After the schism, it reported a 60% drop. It too, seemed to be greatly impacted by the schism. (2005-1,289; 2016-1,069)
Holy Cross of Sullivans Island reported a rise from 936 in 2005 to 2,540 in 2011. After the schism it reported a drop to 1,640 or -65%. (2005-936; 2016-900)
Old Saint Andrews showed the same yo-yo effect. From 567 in 2005, it spiked to 962 in 2011, then fell to 516 in 2016.
The great majority of DSC churches showed declines in membership after the schism. There were a few that showed steady gains through the whole period, most notably Prince George Winyah of Georgetown, 329 in 2005, 380 in 2008, 450 in 2011, 645 in 2016. Church of the Cross in Bluffton: 1,260 in 2005, 1,481 in 2008, 1,701 in 2011, 1,790 in 2016. They were the exception to the rule.
Another measure that reveals a shift is the number of churches gaining and losing members by period. From 2005 to 2008, 22 gained while 18 lost. This began to shift in 2008, the year Lawrence arrived. Between 2008 and 2011, 19 churches lost members while 18 gained, even though the overall number climbed. As we have seen, the dramatic decline came after the schism.
If we consider the whole period of the 11 years between 2005 and 2011, 80% of local churches lost members while 20% gained. Overall, the churches reported significantly fewer people in 2016 (13,877) than nine years earlier, in 2005 (17,981).
In the 6 years before the schism, 2005-2011, the local churches that adhered to Lawrence in the schism gained an impressive number of 3,525. However, in the 5 years after that, these same churches lost 7,629 communicants, or more than twice as many as they had gained in the before the schism. As we have seen, the Lawrence churches reported 35% fewer communicants after the schism.
All of this adds up to clear empirical evidence that the schism had a serious negative effect on the membership of the majority of the parishes and missions that went along with the schism. Moreover, the effect was the worst on the large and famous historical parishes. In sum, the schism caused a dramatic loss of membership in the parishes and missions that went along with it.
---Considering that many parishes have suffered massive losses in membership (not to mention finances), rebuilding these will be a major challenge for the Episcopal Church after the return of the 29 parishes.
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ADDENDUM, March 11:
After posting the above, I wondered if going back several years before the schism would help us get a clearer picture of membership changes in the DSC parishes. Therefore, I looked at the membership figures for 2005, 7 years before the schism and 6 years before the data given above, of 2011. I also studied the statistics for the year 2008, the point at which Bp Lawrence began his episcopacy. If we can see the trends over the years before the schism we would get a better overall picture of the impact of the schism on membership. For instance, if a parish had significant and consistent membership loss all the while, its decline after the schism may have been from long term factors unrelated to the schism, as population shifts.
Again, we are looking at only the reports from the 50 parishes and missions that adhered to Lawrence in the schism of 2012. Here are the totals of communicants they reported:
2005 - 17,981
2008 - 19,338
2011 - 21,506
2016 - 13,877
This tells us that overall the churches were gaining members steadily in the half-dozen years before the schism. Between 2005 and 2008, communicant numbers jumped 1,357, or up 7%. From 2008 to 2011, numbers rose by another 2,168, or 10%. Thus, for the 7 years before the schism, there was a healthy and steady rise in membership of the churches that followed Lawrence in the schism. Then, membership fell precipitously.
It is most instructive to look at the major parishes that seemed to be most impacted by the schism.
St. Helena's of Beaufort lost nearly half its communicants after the schism. Before the schism, however, it was the opposite. From 1,200 communicants in 2005, it grew to 1,737 in 2011, an impressive gain in just 6 years. Therefore, we can reasonably conclude the schism was the factor of change there. (2005-1,200; 2016-880)
St. Michael's of Charleston was much the same. From 1,349 communicants in 2005, it rose to 1,847 in 2011, a 37% gain. However, after it schism it fell by half. Again, it seems that the schism was the turning point there as well. (2005-1,349; 2016-915)
St. Philip's of Charleston, had an eye-popping gain between 2005 and 2011 (if these figures can be believed) from 1,289 to 2,677. After the schism, it reported a 60% drop. It too, seemed to be greatly impacted by the schism. (2005-1,289; 2016-1,069)
Holy Cross of Sullivans Island reported a rise from 936 in 2005 to 2,540 in 2011. After the schism it reported a drop to 1,640 or -65%. (2005-936; 2016-900)
Old Saint Andrews showed the same yo-yo effect. From 567 in 2005, it spiked to 962 in 2011, then fell to 516 in 2016.
The great majority of DSC churches showed declines in membership after the schism. There were a few that showed steady gains through the whole period, most notably Prince George Winyah of Georgetown, 329 in 2005, 380 in 2008, 450 in 2011, 645 in 2016. Church of the Cross in Bluffton: 1,260 in 2005, 1,481 in 2008, 1,701 in 2011, 1,790 in 2016. They were the exception to the rule.
Another measure that reveals a shift is the number of churches gaining and losing members by period. From 2005 to 2008, 22 gained while 18 lost. This began to shift in 2008, the year Lawrence arrived. Between 2008 and 2011, 19 churches lost members while 18 gained, even though the overall number climbed. As we have seen, the dramatic decline came after the schism.
If we consider the whole period of the 11 years between 2005 and 2011, 80% of local churches lost members while 20% gained. Overall, the churches reported significantly fewer people in 2016 (13,877) than nine years earlier, in 2005 (17,981).
In the 6 years before the schism, 2005-2011, the local churches that adhered to Lawrence in the schism gained an impressive number of 3,525. However, in the 5 years after that, these same churches lost 7,629 communicants, or more than twice as many as they had gained in the before the schism. As we have seen, the Lawrence churches reported 35% fewer communicants after the schism.
All of this adds up to clear empirical evidence that the schism had a serious negative effect on the membership of the majority of the parishes and missions that went along with the schism. Moreover, the effect was the worst on the large and famous historical parishes. In sum, the schism caused a dramatic loss of membership in the parishes and missions that went along with it.
