14 APRIL 2020, NOTES

COVID-19 continues to run rampant in the world with no end in sight. This is the worst pandemic of our lifetimes. It is the greatest existential threat to humankind since the Second World War. This is our ever darkening hour.

The statistics of this pandemic continue to be shocking and terrifying. We have been following the numbers in two-day increments and so we will continue in an effort to get some statistical understanding of the progress of this pandemic. The picture that is emerging has two parts. The numbers of cases continue to skyrocket while the rate of the spread of the disease continues to decline. This is bad news and good all at the same time.

According to Worldometer, in the two days from April 12 to 14, 146,241 people in the world fell ill to the voronavirus for a total of 1,937,268 cases. This is a rise of 8%. In the previous two-day period we watched (Apr. 8-10), the rate was 12%. This indicates the virus is still spreading rapidly but the rate of the increase is falling. As for deaths worldwide, 10,936 people died of the virus in the last two days. This is a rise of 10%. On April 8-10, it was 17%. Again, this shows the plague is continuing to kill people in alarming numbers but the rate of the increase is falling. 

Similar trends are seen in America. In the U.S., in the last two days, there were 54,058 new cases, a rise of 10%. From Apr. 8 to 10, the rate of increase was 17%. As for deaths, in the last two days, the U.S. saw 3,064, an increase of 15%. In the period of Apr. 8 to 10, the rate was 30%. This is probably the most encouraging bit of information we have today. The rate of deaths in the U.S. is falling dramatically. This, however, does nothing to diminish the tragedy of a total death number in the U.S. of 23,644.

In South Carolina, in the last two days, there were 232 new cases for a total of 3,439. This is a 7% rise from Apr. 12 to 14, a decline in the rate of growth from the 16% rise of Apr. 8 to 10. Likewise in Alabama, there were 541 new cases from the 12th to the 14th, a rise of 17%. The period of Apr. 8 to 10 had seen a 29% rise. Thus, while state numbers are racing at an alarming pace, the actual rate of increase in falling. As with the world and the U.S., the state numbers are both heartbreaking and encouraging at the same time.  

Meanwhile, we continue on with our social distancing and stay-at-home policies which seem to be working even though the U.S. has by far the worst spread of the disease of any country in the world, and now the most deaths of any country, bypassing Italy.

At the moment, we should be concerned about the fate of Dr. Fauci. On Sunday, he went on the talk shows and said that earlier intervention in the U.S. would have reduced the spread and the number of deaths. This was seen as an implicit criticism of the president. Trump then re-tweeted a "dump Fauci" tweet. Certain right-wing elements have been carrying on an Internet campaign to get rid of Fauci. On yesterday, Fauci humiliated himself by taking his words back in Trump's daily performance. Watching Fauci at the podium was painful. It was like watching a hostage video. My heart ached at our hero's humiliation.

Judging from Trump's well-known pattern of behavior, I would not be surprised to learn one day soon that Fauci has been removed. Right now the fight in Washington is whether to continue the "lock-down" for an extended time or to move to "re-open" the country. Fauci and Birx are fighting for continued lock-down. The Wall Street gang are fighting for re-open. Trump is claiming the power to decide this when in fact the state governors control such. Trump's daily "briefing" on the pandemic has become a grotesque public relations campaign for his re-election. Yesterday's performance was appalling. In my opinion, this was the worst display of presidential leadership since W. demanded we attack Iraq because of (non-existent) weapons of mass destruction. Meanwhile, the real leaders and heroes of the hour are leading the nation through the darkness and I thank God for them every day.

Drs. Fauci and Birx stand between the people and the abyss. We should hope and pray they survive the chaos in Washington. They have managed to dodge the bullets so far, and that is saying a lot.

I wish I had better news. I wish I had some uplifting video or thought to leave with you today, but I have not. This plague will come to an end one day and we will be there all together as we are now. The trite truism is still true, we are all in this together.

Never forget, we are here for the living of this hour. Peace.