18 APRIL 2020, NOTES

Greetings, dear blog reader on this Saturday in April. The night of the plague is ever descending. The dark is growing darker. The world and the nation are in the thick of the worst natural disaster of our lifetimes. This is a terrible time as we watch people all around us fall sick and die.

We have been tracking the progress of COVID-19 in two-day increments from the statistics provided in Worldometer. So, what do the past two days (April 16-18) reveal as of this morning posted numbers? The news is not good.

In the world, another 166,479 people have fallen ill for a total of 2,263,052. This is a growth rate of 8%. This is the same rate as the previous two days. Thus, no change in the rate of spread. As for deaths from coronavirus, 19,165 people in the world died of it in the last two days. This is a rising rate of 14%, and more than the previous two days of 12%. Thus, the death rate is rising in the world.

As for the United States, our country continues to zoom along as the center of the pandemic with by far the most cases and the most deaths. In the past two days, 65,924 Americans fell ill for a total of 710,272. This is a rise of 10%, the same as the previous two days. Thus, the spread of the disease is not abating. As for deaths, 8, 621 people in the U.S. died of the virus in the past two days for a total death figure of 37,175. This is a 30% rise (in two days!). In the previous two days (Apr. 14-16), the rise in the death rate was 21%. These numbers show there is no abatement, no plateau, no flattening the curve that some people claim is happening. Statistically, this deadly disease is spreading exponentially.

The numbers in our local states are no less shocking. In South Carolina, in the past few days, 430 people have fallen ill of the virus, a rise of 12%. There are now 4,086 cases in SC. The previous two days had seen a 6% rise. Nine more people died in SC for a total of 116 deaths. This is a lessening rate. In Alabama, the plague is spreading even faster. In the last two days there were 331 new cases and 28 more deaths. This is consistent with the previous periods.

Even if the Worldometer numbers are not precise, they still give us a general picture and indication of trends. In general, COVID-19 is spreading rapidly. The worst spread is in America where the death numbers are spiking. The numbers do not show any lessening of the pandemic, quite the opposite.

At the first of this month, the experts, as Drs. Fauci and Birx, told us the first two weeks of April were likely to be the worst, that is, to see the most rapid spread and skyrocketing death numbers in America. Were they right? Let us look at the statistics of the first two whole weeks of April (April 4-18):

As for cases in the world, the number rose from 1,133,500 to 2,263,052 from the 4th to the 18th. This is about double. As for deaths in the world, the figure rose from 60,378 on Apr. 4 to 154,827 on Apr. 18. This is more than doubling. In the United States, there were 277,607 reported cases on the 4th and 710,272 on the 18th. This is almost triple growth, far more than the world average. As for deaths in America, as of the 4th, there were 7,406. On the 18th, there were 37,175 reported deaths. 7,406 to 37,175 is nearly a five-fold increase. Nearly 30,000 Americans died of the disease in the last two weeks! This is the most disturbing figure of all.

In South Carolina, reported cases jumped from 1,700 on the 4th to 4,086 on the 18th. This is more than double. Deaths in SC went from 34 to 107. Alabama jumped from 1,515 cases to 4,572, triple. Deaths in AL jumped from 38 to 151. As with the world and the nation, there is no indication in the figures of a slowing down of the pandemic. In fact, the numbers suggest a quickening of the spread and the mortality.

Thus, the experts were right that the first two weeks of April were going to be bad. The numbers certainly show this clearly. There is no sign of leveling off although it is too soon to tell if this is the top of the curve. We will need more time to know where the trend is going. However, there is no reason in the posted statistics to believe that we have seen the worst of this pandemic. The latest projected mortality figure being tossed around of 60,000 Americans dead by August is probably unreasonably low. 37,000 American deaths by April 18, leaves only 23,000 to go in three or four months. To hold it down to 60,000, there would have to be a dramatic and sudden decrease in the mortality rate and there is no sign this is happening. Realistically, we can expect far more than  60,000 Americans dead of the virus by the end of the summer.

This is why I do not understand the push popular among some conservative elements of the U.S. to minimize the reality and the significance of this pandemic and the push to ignore it and "re-open" the country. I simply do not understand where they are coming from. They can see the same terrifying statistics that we all see. This disease is not just like the flu, it is not just like any other pandemic of our lifetimes. It is something unique and very deadly.

To be sure, the experts are telling us there is far more we do not know about this disease than we do know. OK, what do we know? Here is where the experts agree:

1-COVID-19 is highly contagious. It is two and a half times more contagious than the common cold. A carrier can infect another person just be breathing on them.

2-COVID-19 is deadly. It is ten times more deadly than the common flu. Uniting the contagious and mortality factors produces a lethal combination.

3-There is no cure, not even an agreed upon set of treatments for this disease. A vaccine to prevent it is at least a year off. 

4-COVID-19 is mysterious in its effects on the host bodies. Between a quarter and a half of people who get the virus remain "asymptomatic," that is do not show any symptoms of it. They do not feel sick. However, they are carriers and can (unknowingly) spread the virus to anyone with whom they come in contact. They can also leave the virus behind on hard surfaces where it can be picked up by the next person. On the other hand, the virus can produce strange, even bizarre, effects in some people which, even if they survive may do permanent damage. We know this virus can attack the brain as well as the lungs and other organs.

5-The "mitigation," such as it is, is coming from social distancing, stay-at-home, and disinfecting practices. Lifting these practices increases the likelihood of accelerating the spread of COVID-19.

Of course, everyone is sick and tired of this pandemic. We wish the disease had never appeared. We wish it would go away. We wish our lives could get back to "normal." We all agree on that. The problem we are now facing is how to get there. What is the best approach to a return to normal in this unique situation? 

First and foremost, we should listen to the experts. Drs. Fauci and Birx are our national treasures. They have spent their long and remarkable lives preparing for this moment in time. They are here for us in this terrible hour. I for one do not think this is just a random chance. So, if we have any sense at all, we will heed their advice. And their advice now is to go slow in "re-opening" the country. Let's take a little step at a time and see how it goes. If numbers start to spike, we should reconsider.

The people who are making light of this international, and national, health emergency are wrong. We should not listen to them. We should listen to the experts, the people who know whereof they speak. Likewise, we should not listen to the people who are trying to turn the response to the pandemic into a political issue. They are also wrong, on another level. This is not the time to settle old scores. This is not the time to campaign for the next election. This is a time for all of us to come together and defeat the enemy that threatens us all.

Keep in mind, we are here for the living of this terrible hour. May the peace of God remain with you, and with me.