NOTES, 21 AUGUST 2020
Greetings, blog reader, on this Friday. August 21, 2020. My best wishes to each of you. Hundreds of people click onto this space every day. Some of you I know by name. Most of you I do not know. My aim here is to raise issues that I think are of importance to us and to provide information on these as a guide to these uncertain times. Today, I have several topics to offer:
---PANDEMIC.
Today's figures from Worldometers show that COVID-19 continues to spread but at a lessening rate. This is true across the board.
In the past week (August 14-21), 1,787,042 new cases were reported in the world, for a total of 22,891,681. This is an 8% increase, down from the 10% of the prior week. As for deaths in the last week, 39,609 were reported for a total of 797,671. This is a 5% rise, down slightly from the week before.
The United States continues as the world's epicenter. In the past week, 329,705 new cases were reported in the U.S. for a total of 5,746,534. This is a 6% increase, down from the 8% of the earlier week. As for reported deaths, there were 6,999 in the week, for a total of 177,438, a rise of 4%, down slightly from the previous week. At present, 1,000 Americans are dying every day from the coronavirus. At this rate, 200,000 will be dead by mid-September. By the end of the year, we can expect 300,000 dead. This number will probably be much higher as fall and winter set in and there is no vaccine in sight. Meanwhile, there is no national policy or program to combat the disease.
South Carolina continues to be a "hot spot" in the U.S. although the rates of spread and mortality have fallen dramatically. In the past week, there were 5,411 reported new cases in SC, a rising rate of 5%, well below the rate of the earlier week and below the national average. This is a welcomed break in a long trend. As for deaths, SC reported 215 in the last week, a 10% increase, for a total of 2,401. It is too soon to tell if SC has turned the corner but the charts show rates falling in the past few weeks.
As SC, Alabama continues as a "hot spot." In the last week, there were 6,892 new cases reported, a rise of 7%. AL reported 84 deaths in the week, for a total of 1,974. These figures are well below of those of the past few weeks. As SC, there is a long trend in the right direction in AL although it is too soon to draw conclusions. In all, 112,449 Alabamians have contracted the virus and 1,974 have died of it.
Perhaps the best news of all comes from Charleston County. It reported a modest 431 new cases, for a total of 13,062, a rising rate of 3%, well below the state and national averages. However, the state health department estimates that the true number of cases in the county at 90,939, or about one in five residents. The county also listed 8 new deaths, for a total of 217. The most hopeful news is that the rates in the county show a long term downward trend.
In sum, COVID-19 continues to spread in the world, particularly in America while there are pockets of improving rates here and there. Still, we must lament the fact that 1,000 of our fellow citizens are dying in this pandemic every day. This should not be happening in the wealthiest and most powerful country in the world. It is a failure of our national leadership.
---DIOCESAN CONVENTIONS.
The annual diocesan convention meetings will be "virtual" this year, that is, online. The new Anglican Diocese of South Carolina will go on the computer on October 3. The Episcopal Diocese of South Carolina will hold its 230th annual meeting on November 20, also online. Also, apparently, next year's general convention of the Episcopal Church will be on the computer.
---SEARCH FOR BISHOPS.
The Episcopal diocese of SC has announced the resumption of its search for the XV bishop of the diocese, having suspended such last April. It projects an election in early 2021. See the diocesan press release about this here .
The new Anglican diocese of SC announced several weeks ago that it expected to choose a bishop coadjutor soon. The new bishop will succeed Mark Lawrence as the second bishop of this association. There has been no news about this lately.
---LITIGATION.
No news on this either. I expect vacation times of August have put the legal issues on hold for the moment. We are awaiting three court actions: 1-Judge Dickson to rule on whether to grant a stay of his decision pending the appeal; 2-the SC Court of Appeals to rule on whether it will pass the appeal on to the SC Supreme Court; 3-the U.S. Court of Appeals, 4th Circuit, on the Anglican diocese's appeal of Judge Gergel's order of last September.
---POLITICAL CRISIS.
The United States is moving into a worsening political crisis as we approach the general election of November 3, 2020. I believe this is the greatest crisis the nation faces at the moment. Since early in the year, the U.S. has endured several crises: the pandemic, the economic depression, the social unrest (street demonstrations), and the constitutional crisis. Only the third (social) has receded, at least superficially. The other three are worsening. In my view, the constitutional crisis is the most important for the future of the country. President Trump has said explicitly that if he loses, the election will be illegitimate, that is, he will refuse to accept the results of the election and will not concede his office or his power. The crisis is already occurring.
Here is my take on our political crisis. Regular readers of this blog are familiar with my overall theory of contemporary history. In the late Twentieth and early Twenty-First Centuries, America witnessed a great democratic revolution that worked on two levels. There was a social democratic revolution that gave African Americans, women, homosexuals, and others liberty, equality, and justice. There was also a political revolution that incorporated these newly freed groups into the constitutional process, really for the first time. The monopoly on political power of the old white male power structures began to crumble.
A revolution in history is always followed by a counter-revolution, or backlash, led by elements that felt most threatened by the revolutionary reforms. In this case, white working class men, southern whites, evangelicals, and the Wall Street crowd saw the changes as dangerous threats to their perceived social, cultural, and economic interests. The counter-revolution began in 1968 with the "southern strategy" and culminated in the election of Donald Trump in 2016. From 1968 to 1990, while dividing up revolution/counter-revolution, America was forced into union by a common external threat, the U.S.S.R. When that state failed and disintegrated in 1990, the Cold War ended and America emerged as the world's one and only super power. However, the necessary bond of union was the victim of this. After 1990, there was no common threat to force the nation together. The internal divisions erupted in the 1990's, particularly in the Clinton years. This growing disunion may have been abated by the 9-11 attack, but the national leadership squandered this possibility by devising a needless and useless war on trumped up charges. The divisions increased again. The election, and reelection of the nation's first president of African ancestry greatly intensified the clash between the revolutionary and counter-revolutionary forces and prepared the stage for an over-the-top manipulator of counter-revolutionary rage, the demagogue Donald Trump, a master showman with no political experience. Trump rode a huge wave of racism (counter-revolution) to a victory in the Electoral College (not in the popular vote).
Trump has combined two forces in his unique presidential administration. On the one hand, he has handed the economic conservatives an enormous tax break for rich individuals and corporations. Wall Street loves Trump. On the other hand, he has developed an authoritarian governing style that hands out cultural counter-reforms. There is a very long list of roll-backs carried out by his administration, mostly by direct orders. The counter-revolutionary elements love Trump too. In fact, in my observation, there is a cult-like following. A recent, and highly disturbing manifestation of this phenomenon, is the QAnon movement, based on the belief that Trump is a messiah here to save the country, and the world, from satanic (Democratic) forces that enslave and cannibalize children. Apparently, millions of Americans buy into this appalling insanity. When asked about QAnon, Trump only gave it approval, equally shocking. This reveals just how far some people in the counter-revolutionary backlash will go in their quest to stop revolution. In my view, the great weakness in Trump's order is his foreign policy that confronts allies and cozies up to adversaries. This has caused him a good deal of opposition and really little to no support from his electoral coalition.
Trump was sailing right into reelection, at least according to the bookies in Vegas, when this year began. He had survived triumphantly the Mueller investigation and impeachment, no mean feat. In January of 2020, Trump seemed unbeatable. Then the coronavirus appeared. Everything changed. For the first time in thirty years, a common enemy stormed the gates forcing the nation to unite to protect itself against a deadly novel virus and its pandemic. This was the moment when Trump could have sealed his reelection once and for all. If he had created a strong, unified, and well-coordinated national response to the pandemic, he would have won the votes of most Americans. He did not do that. He squandered the opportunity as he denied the threat , then minimized and bunged the crisis. The virus exposed the fatal flaws in Trump as a political leader. It brought him down as Mueller and impeachment had not done. Trump proved to be incompetent at handling a national crisis. The national mood blamed him. Public opinion turned against him. Virtually every poll since has shown Trump losing the election by significant margins. Seeing his impending defeat, he is now attacking the election itself.
In my view, there are several important reasons why Trump must be defeated for reelection. In the first place, the democratic revolution must proceed. In the second place, the U.S. Constitution must remain sacrosanct. Without it, we will not have the country we have known. In the third place, we must demand a government of moral and ethical principles. This is even greater than the first and second points. Without a strong sense of right and wrong, American society will devolve into amoral chaos and violence. The Trump administration is arguably the most corrupt in American history because it has no firm commitment to moral and ethical principles. Just yesterday, a close political advisor to Trump was arrested and charged with a felony. Steve Bannon joins a very long list of Trump insiders who have been hauled into court, some convicted and some in prison.
The national election arriving in two and a half months will be a crossroads of American history. I see three huge issues at stake: 1-revolution versus counter-revolution, 2-the U.S. Constitution, and 3-moral and ethical government. Altogether, this is about as serious as it gets. What comes out of the upcoming election will impact on the country as nothing since the Civil War. Our future as a democratic, constitutional republic, and cohesive society is hanging in the balance.
As an historian, particularly one of revolutions, I see the eventual victory of the revolutionary reforms with some moderation. This is the historical pattern of great revolutions of the past. However, there is a big question of when and how this would come about. Right now, the national election is entirely uncertain. If Trump loses, as the polls now indicate he will, we can expect a great crisis, possibly even mass violence in the streets. Following the model of the 2000 election, the outcome will go to the courts. In 2000, a 5-4 decision of the U.S. Supreme Court awarded the election to the man who had clearly lost the election. I see no reason to believe the court would not do the same again. At any rate, we are in for a national crisis, and one that may last for over two months, from Nov. 3 to to inauguration of January 20, 2021.
We are in a dark hour. There are worsening crises all around us. Nevertheless, I see plenty of signs that we will triumph over these. There are lots of good people out there working hard to make this come about. We are all here for the living of this hour. We will make it through the night, together. Peace.
---SEARCH FOR BISHOPS.
The Episcopal diocese of SC has announced the resumption of its search for the XV bishop of the diocese, having suspended such last April. It projects an election in early 2021. See the diocesan press release about this here .
The new Anglican diocese of SC announced several weeks ago that it expected to choose a bishop coadjutor soon. The new bishop will succeed Mark Lawrence as the second bishop of this association. There has been no news about this lately.
---LITIGATION.
No news on this either. I expect vacation times of August have put the legal issues on hold for the moment. We are awaiting three court actions: 1-Judge Dickson to rule on whether to grant a stay of his decision pending the appeal; 2-the SC Court of Appeals to rule on whether it will pass the appeal on to the SC Supreme Court; 3-the U.S. Court of Appeals, 4th Circuit, on the Anglican diocese's appeal of Judge Gergel's order of last September.
---POLITICAL CRISIS.
The United States is moving into a worsening political crisis as we approach the general election of November 3, 2020. I believe this is the greatest crisis the nation faces at the moment. Since early in the year, the U.S. has endured several crises: the pandemic, the economic depression, the social unrest (street demonstrations), and the constitutional crisis. Only the third (social) has receded, at least superficially. The other three are worsening. In my view, the constitutional crisis is the most important for the future of the country. President Trump has said explicitly that if he loses, the election will be illegitimate, that is, he will refuse to accept the results of the election and will not concede his office or his power. The crisis is already occurring.
Here is my take on our political crisis. Regular readers of this blog are familiar with my overall theory of contemporary history. In the late Twentieth and early Twenty-First Centuries, America witnessed a great democratic revolution that worked on two levels. There was a social democratic revolution that gave African Americans, women, homosexuals, and others liberty, equality, and justice. There was also a political revolution that incorporated these newly freed groups into the constitutional process, really for the first time. The monopoly on political power of the old white male power structures began to crumble.
A revolution in history is always followed by a counter-revolution, or backlash, led by elements that felt most threatened by the revolutionary reforms. In this case, white working class men, southern whites, evangelicals, and the Wall Street crowd saw the changes as dangerous threats to their perceived social, cultural, and economic interests. The counter-revolution began in 1968 with the "southern strategy" and culminated in the election of Donald Trump in 2016. From 1968 to 1990, while dividing up revolution/counter-revolution, America was forced into union by a common external threat, the U.S.S.R. When that state failed and disintegrated in 1990, the Cold War ended and America emerged as the world's one and only super power. However, the necessary bond of union was the victim of this. After 1990, there was no common threat to force the nation together. The internal divisions erupted in the 1990's, particularly in the Clinton years. This growing disunion may have been abated by the 9-11 attack, but the national leadership squandered this possibility by devising a needless and useless war on trumped up charges. The divisions increased again. The election, and reelection of the nation's first president of African ancestry greatly intensified the clash between the revolutionary and counter-revolutionary forces and prepared the stage for an over-the-top manipulator of counter-revolutionary rage, the demagogue Donald Trump, a master showman with no political experience. Trump rode a huge wave of racism (counter-revolution) to a victory in the Electoral College (not in the popular vote).
Trump has combined two forces in his unique presidential administration. On the one hand, he has handed the economic conservatives an enormous tax break for rich individuals and corporations. Wall Street loves Trump. On the other hand, he has developed an authoritarian governing style that hands out cultural counter-reforms. There is a very long list of roll-backs carried out by his administration, mostly by direct orders. The counter-revolutionary elements love Trump too. In fact, in my observation, there is a cult-like following. A recent, and highly disturbing manifestation of this phenomenon, is the QAnon movement, based on the belief that Trump is a messiah here to save the country, and the world, from satanic (Democratic) forces that enslave and cannibalize children. Apparently, millions of Americans buy into this appalling insanity. When asked about QAnon, Trump only gave it approval, equally shocking. This reveals just how far some people in the counter-revolutionary backlash will go in their quest to stop revolution. In my view, the great weakness in Trump's order is his foreign policy that confronts allies and cozies up to adversaries. This has caused him a good deal of opposition and really little to no support from his electoral coalition.
Trump was sailing right into reelection, at least according to the bookies in Vegas, when this year began. He had survived triumphantly the Mueller investigation and impeachment, no mean feat. In January of 2020, Trump seemed unbeatable. Then the coronavirus appeared. Everything changed. For the first time in thirty years, a common enemy stormed the gates forcing the nation to unite to protect itself against a deadly novel virus and its pandemic. This was the moment when Trump could have sealed his reelection once and for all. If he had created a strong, unified, and well-coordinated national response to the pandemic, he would have won the votes of most Americans. He did not do that. He squandered the opportunity as he denied the threat , then minimized and bunged the crisis. The virus exposed the fatal flaws in Trump as a political leader. It brought him down as Mueller and impeachment had not done. Trump proved to be incompetent at handling a national crisis. The national mood blamed him. Public opinion turned against him. Virtually every poll since has shown Trump losing the election by significant margins. Seeing his impending defeat, he is now attacking the election itself.
In my view, there are several important reasons why Trump must be defeated for reelection. In the first place, the democratic revolution must proceed. In the second place, the U.S. Constitution must remain sacrosanct. Without it, we will not have the country we have known. In the third place, we must demand a government of moral and ethical principles. This is even greater than the first and second points. Without a strong sense of right and wrong, American society will devolve into amoral chaos and violence. The Trump administration is arguably the most corrupt in American history because it has no firm commitment to moral and ethical principles. Just yesterday, a close political advisor to Trump was arrested and charged with a felony. Steve Bannon joins a very long list of Trump insiders who have been hauled into court, some convicted and some in prison.
The national election arriving in two and a half months will be a crossroads of American history. I see three huge issues at stake: 1-revolution versus counter-revolution, 2-the U.S. Constitution, and 3-moral and ethical government. Altogether, this is about as serious as it gets. What comes out of the upcoming election will impact on the country as nothing since the Civil War. Our future as a democratic, constitutional republic, and cohesive society is hanging in the balance.
As an historian, particularly one of revolutions, I see the eventual victory of the revolutionary reforms with some moderation. This is the historical pattern of great revolutions of the past. However, there is a big question of when and how this would come about. Right now, the national election is entirely uncertain. If Trump loses, as the polls now indicate he will, we can expect a great crisis, possibly even mass violence in the streets. Following the model of the 2000 election, the outcome will go to the courts. In 2000, a 5-4 decision of the U.S. Supreme Court awarded the election to the man who had clearly lost the election. I see no reason to believe the court would not do the same again. At any rate, we are in for a national crisis, and one that may last for over two months, from Nov. 3 to to inauguration of January 20, 2021.
We are in a dark hour. There are worsening crises all around us. Nevertheless, I see plenty of signs that we will triumph over these. There are lots of good people out there working hard to make this come about. We are all here for the living of this hour. We will make it through the night, together. Peace.
