NOTES, 19 OCTOBER 2020
Greetings, blog reader, on this Monday, October 19, 2020. Here's a wish that all goes well with you and yours in this trying hour. It is time for our weekly check-in on the issues we have been following for months now.
PANDEMIC. All signs are that the COVID-19 pandemic is spreading apace. There are indications of an up-tick in the numbers as cooler weather is driving people indoors.
In the world, over 40m people have become infected with the coronavirus and over a million of those have died. According to our usual source, Worldometers, last week, October 12-19, there were 2, 552,974 new cases, a rising rate of 7%, the same as the previous week. As for deaths, 37,388 people in the world died of the disease, an increase of 3%, down slightly from the 4% of the earlier week.
The United States is showing consistent rates of cases and deaths. Last week, the U.S. reported 395,081 new cases, a rate of 5%, the same as the previous week. The U.S. also reported 5,026 deaths of the disease, a rising rate of 2%, the same as the week earlier. In the last seven months, the U.S. has reported 224,732 deaths from covid. With 4 % of the world's population, the U.S. has suffered 20% of the world's deaths in this pandemic. This is a reflection on the failure of a national program to mitigate the spread of this highly contagious and deadly virus.
In South Carolina, there were 6,584 new cases last week, a rising rate of 4%. The total of cases in SC is now 163,790. There were 98 deaths in the state from covid last week, a rising rate of 3%, up slightly from the 2% of the earlier week. In all, 3,650 South Carolinians have died in this plague, all within the last seven months.
In Charleston County, covid continues to spread at about the same pace. Last week, the county reported 355 new cases, a rate of 2%, the same as the earlier week. The county also reported 2 new deaths last week, for a total of 271.
Alabama showed similar results last week. The state reported 7,284 new cases, a rising rate of 4%, the same as the earlier week. AL also reported 124 deaths from covid, last week, a rising rate of 5%, up slightly from the 4% of the earlier week. The total of deaths in AL from covid now stands at 2,788.
LITIGATION. We are still waiting on several issues to be resolved.
1-Last July, Church lawyers asked Judge Dickson for a stay of his order pending the appeal to the South Carolina Supreme Court. He has not responded.
2-We are waiting on the SCSC to set a hearing, or to render a written decision, on the Church's appeal of Judge Dickson's order nullifying the SCSC decision of Aug. 2, 2017.
3-Church lawyers asked Judge Gergel for a new order of enforcement of his injunction against the Anglican diocese (Sept. 19, 2019). Gergel has not responded.
4-The United States Court of Appeals, Fourth Circuit, in Richmond VA, has set a time period for a hearing of the church case in early December. The exact date will be set later. The hearing will be conducted remotely, by electronic means. The Anglican diocese is appealing Judge Gergl's decision of Sept. 19, 2019.
5-The Anglican diocese has asked the U.S. Court of Appeals for a stay of their appeal pending the outcome of the Episcopal diocese's appeal of Judge Dickson order to the SCSC. We are awaiting a response from the Court of Appeals.
POLITICAL CRISIS. The national election is two weeks from tomorrow. Of course, nearly 30m voters have already voted. It is amazing to see the tremendous response to early voting. There are long lines everywhere. In some places, there are twenty times as many early voters as four years ago. At the very least, this means that people are much more enthusiastic about voting than last time. So far, Dems are voting early about 2 to 1 over Reps.
In my view, signs are clear that Biden will be elected. The question is the size of the margin and the effects of this on the down ballot. Whereas, SC, AL, and MS will all vote for Trump, the size of the margin will be much less than in 2016. This is seen in the unexpectedly close races for Senate. In SC, AL, and MS, the Republican candidates all tied themselves closely to Trump, yet all are now polling nearly even with, and in some cases below, their Dem opponents. As everyone knows, Lindsey Graham is in the fight of his life for reelection in SC. His fate is entirely uncertain. In AL, the Dem senator, Jones, is holding up well against the Trump clone Tuberville. Even in Mississippi, the Trumpist Rep. senator Hyde-Smith is facing stiff competition from the Dem challenger Espy. All of this tells us that Trump is not as popular in these states as he was four years ago.
Back to the bookies in Vegas. They are betting big time that Biden will win and the Dems will win a majority in the Senate.
What still worries me is we cannot know what Trump and the Trumpistas will do to throw the election into unsolvable chaos. There are numerous heavily armed right-wing gangs "standing by" for word from Trump for action in the streets. The antidote to this is that the American people must stand up and keep these thugs from disrupting our peaceful political process. So far, the institutions of government are working, and that is hopeful.
The next few months are going to be stressful. There is no use in pretending otherwise. All of the crises bearing down on us will get worse. We are in for an ever darkening night. Remember, you are not in this alone. We are all together. Let us find the strength and courage to press on to the dawning light. Peace.
