NOTES,   26 OCTOBER 2020

Welcome, blog reader, on Monday, October 26, 2020. It is time to return to the crises we have been tracking for months now. Two of these are intensifying. In the pandemic, we are seeing the third great wave of new infections, just as the experts predicted we would see in the fall. The numbers of new cases are at record levels in some places in America. In the political crisis, the national election day is just a week from tomorrow. Both sides are pulling out all the stops to win. 

THE PANDEMIC. All signs show increasing rates of infections and deaths, particularly in the United States. The coronavirus is clearly out of control with no indication of mitigation. A vaccine is still months away at the least. 

Our usual source, Worldometers, tells us that last week, October 19-26, there were 3,058,685 new cases in the world. This was a rising rate of 8%, up from the 7% of the earlier week. The rate of deaths in the world is also rising. Last week there were 40,597 reported covid deaths, a rate of 4%, up from the 3% of the previous week. More than one million people in the world have died of the plague (1,159,930). Clearly, this deadly pandemic is spreading although at uneven rates in different countries.

New case and deaths rates are also climbing in the United States. Last week, the U.S. reported 501,564 new cases for a total of 8,889,577. This is a rising rate of 6%, up from the 5% of the earlier week. As for deaths in the U.S., there were 5,778 reported last week, a rising rate of 3%, up from the 2% of the previous week. Clearly, the disease is spreading rapidly in America although this is uneven. In all, 230,510 Americans are reported to have died of COVID-19 (the real number is probably much higher).

South Carolina reported 6,688 new cases of COVID-19 last week for a total of 170,678. This is a increasing rate of 4%, the same as the preceding week. SC also reported 152 deaths last week, a 4% rise, up from the 3% of the earlier week. Again, clearly the pandemic is spreading apace in SC.

Alabama is now one of the hottest spots in the country for the spread of the virus. Last week, AL reported a whopping 11,729 cases, an alarming rate of 11%. The previous week, AL reported a 4% rise. One of the three "hottest" counties in AL now is my home county, Calhoun. Altogether, AL has had 184,355 infections and 2,866 deaths. Last week, the death rate was 3%, actually down from the 5% of the earlier week. Public health officials are sounding the alarm in AL but the governor seems indifferent, or at least refuses to take any new mitigation measures. 

Charleston County SC continues to see the pandemic spread apace. Last week, it reported 417 new cases for a total of 17,045. This is a rising rate of 3%, up from the 2% of the earlier week. In all, 275 people in the county have died of the disease.

In sum, the experts are telling us we are in the third wave of the pandemic and it is to be the worst yet (the first was in April, the second in July). We can expect a hastening pace of spread of infections and mortality in the next few months. The worst is yet to come. Unfortunately, our political authorities in the U.S. are mostly ignoring all the warning signs of this public health emergency.

 POLITICAL CRISIS. Election day is eight days off, Tuesday, November 3, 2020. Of course, nearly 60m voters have already voted, so we have an election season rather than a day.

All signs indicate that Joe Biden will win the popular vote and, in all probability, the Electoral College. To be sure, many Democrats are hesitant to say so because of the bitter disappointment in 2016 when everyone, even Donald Trump, expected Hillary Clinton to win. Dems are still spooked about making predictions.

No one can tell yet whether this will be close or a landslide. Many states are showing neck-and-neck races for president. Also, some states are showing toss ups for senator, most famously South Carolina. The race there is too close to call in the polls but some surveys are showing the Democrat, Harrison, running ahead of the incumbent Republican Senator, Graham. Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi, all usually red states are all having unexpectedly close races between the Dem and Rep candidates for the Senate. Overall, the bookies are betting the Democrats will win a majority of the seats in the Senate.

My greatest fear continues to be that the losing side will challenge the legal and legitimate election results in court on trumped up charges. If they can create enough doubt in the validity of the results in certain states, this could lead to the state legislatures and/or the courts deciding the outcome. In this scenario, the Republicans would have a good chance to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat, against the will of the people, as they did in the Election of 2000 when the Supreme Court ruled 5-4 for the losing candidate, W. This would be the worst nightmare outcome in 2020 that would throw the country into an upheaval the likes of which no one can imagine now. The subsequent widespread violence would allow the Trump administration to declare a national emergency and use armed power to suspend the Constitution and solidify minority rule in America. If so, fascism would be complete and the democratic republic of two and a half centuries would slip into history. It has become a cliché to say this, but it is none the less true: This is the most important election of any of our lifetimes. The future of our country depends on it.

Regular readers of this blog know my theory of contemporary America---revolution v. counter-revolution. In the last few years, Trump has brought the counter-revolutionary side to its greatest power ever, but his fatally flawed personality is bringing himself, and therefore his faustian allies, down. The key to his fall is the coronavirus. In the historical theory of Challenge and Response, America was challenged with a pandemic the likes of which had not been seen in a century. The country looked to the administration to respond (defend the country from deadly invasion) but there was no coherent, unified national response, indeed, quite the opposite. Trump failed to lead the country in a meaningful way as the majority of the people expected. The majority will now reject the president. In rejecting the president they will also be rejecting the president's train, the counter-revolutionaries. If Trump loses in a landslide, the counter-revolutionary reaction against the Great Democratic Revolution will also be diminished even though it will live on in the federal courts.

So, I see this election as a great showdown between the forces of those who want to continue the democratic reforms and those who oppose them. The reform movement has the force of history behind it. However, the counter movement has a leader who will do almost anything to keep from losing. He has already told pro-Trump, white racist, heavily armed thugs to "stand by." Unfortunately, that means we all have to stand by as our country heads into a political crisis of historic proportions. "In God We Trust" now takes on new meaning.

Although the election is a week from tomorrow, I have the unsettling feeling Election Day will be just the beginning of a great political crisis that will extend at least until December 14 when the electors of the Electoral College cast their votes for president. 

Today, it is more important than ever that we remember none of us chose any of this. Nevertheless, we are here for the living of this hour, as fearful and tragic as it is. May we all find the strength and courage to be our best selves whatever happens around us. Peace.