THE MOMENT OF DECISION DRAWS NIGH
It is only a matter of hours before the Episcopalians in the Diocese of South Carolina choose their next bishop-elect. After nearly a year and a half of preparation, the time of decision is finally at hand. Two hundred and thirty six years of history are looking down on the people of the diocese (341 if one wants to go back to the first Anglican church in SC). Will they choose the first woman bishop, the first African American, the first openly gay, or none of the above? This election will be a first in many ways: the first in a schism, first in a pandemic, first by entirely electronic means, first without an assembly. All of this is a lot to process.
The election convention is scheduled to begin at 9:00 a.m. EDT, on Saturday, May 1, 2021. For the participants, it will be on Zoom. For everyone else, it will be live streamed on YouTube.
I will open a commentary page on this blog before the convention commences and provide a running account as the election unfolds while I watch the YouTube feed. I expect to start my remarks on this blog within the hour before the convention begins.
Here are some final thoughts, as we count down the last hours:
---I am sure everyone would agree that the diocese has been blessed with five outstanding nominees. Any one of them would make a good bishop. The people of the diocese should be profoundly grateful that these fine people offered to captain their ship through the perilous seas ahead. I for one do not think this stellar slate is a random accident of history.
---My sense at this point (admittedly with little empirical data) is that no one has a lock on the election. However, there has been a great deal of interest in the two women nominees.
---The search process itself has helped the people of the diocese sort out their own thoughts about where the diocese has been, where it is now, and where it will go moving forward. The diocese itself is better off having gone through the process of a search. The search was not just for a bishop, it was for the soul of the diocese.
---The logistics of a "virtual" election are problematical. The Laity Order will vote by local church. A parish has four delegates while a mission has two. Each delegation will have to stay in close and continuous contact with each other as the voting proceeds because they have to vote by consensus within the delegation. If a delegation splits 50/50, they nullify their church's vote.
---For election, there must be a majority in the Clergy Order and the Laity Order at the same time. If there is no concurrent majority, the voting continues to the next ballot. In every bishop's election I have studied, the final winner led the vote in at least one of the orders on the First Ballot.
Therefore, when the vote on the First Ballot is announced, note the top vote-getter in each of the two orders. If there is not a concurrent majority for one nominee, the voting will proceed to a Second Ballot. In all probability, one of the nominees who led the voting in one (or the one who led in both orders) on the First Ballot will wind up winning the election. I do not know of a bishop's election in which a dark horse candidate came from behind to overtake one or both of the top vote-getters of the First Ballot.
---If the orders split on the top vote-getter (Clergy give A the most votes while Laity give B the most votes), coming to a consensus may be difficult. Only one can win. A split would mean one of two things would have to happen. Either one order would have to bow to the other to arrive at a consensus majority, or a third candidate would have to arise and overtake the top vote-getter in each order to secure a concurrent majority (again, I do not know of any case in which a third candidate won). The danger here is lingering hard feelings. This is why it is best not to go into the voting too set on one nominee to the exclusion of all others.
---Also, on the First Ballot, note the relative positions of the two women candidates in relation to the three men. If the two women come in first and second places on one or both orders and there is space between them and the three men, this will indicate a consensus among the voters, or at least a strong leaning, to elect a woman as bishop. It would be a clear signal that one of the women, most likely the one who is the top vote-getter, will have a strong chance of winning the election, perhaps on the next ballot.
---Also, one should note the lowest two vote-getters on the First Ballot in each order. Sometimes, seeing that they will not win, the bottom one or two candidates will withdraw from the race as the balloting proceeds. Regardless, votes will shift from the bottom two to the top two. The delegates who leave the bottom contestants will have to decide where to shift their votes.
---It is impossible at this point to know what effect the low numbers of possible votes will mean to the outcome. If all of the certified clergy participate, there will be only 34 votes in the Clergy Order. This means a candidate must get at least 18 votes to win in that order. If all of the eligible local churches participate, there will be only 19.5 lay votes. This means 10 or more votes will be necessary to carry the Laity Order. With so few possible votes, even a slight shift will be more significant than if the election involved greater numbers.
Finally, one cannot overemphasize the importance of this election. In all probability it will set the direction of the Diocese of South Carolina for many years to come. Now, the choice of the new bishop is in the hands of the good people of the diocese. These people are my heroes. Knowing the difference between right and wrong, they took the hard road only because it was the right thing to do. They gave up of themselves so that others might be given full life in the church. Now, at this historic moment of decision, we should all rest confident in the good judgment of the people of the Diocese of South Carolina.
(A personal footnote. My goal on this blog in the run-up to the election was to provide information and raise issues which the people of the diocese could use to reach their own conclusions. As I told my students for decades, I am not here to tell you what to think; I am here to tell you how to think. The decision on the bishop of SC is not mine to make. It belongs to the people of the Diocese of South Carolina. I have tried very hard to remain neutral on this blog and to avoid personal commentary on the individual candidates. My fondest wish is that on election day, everyone makes his or her most informed and thoughtful choice.)
