NOTES, 26 JANUARY 2021
Welcome, blog reader, on Tuesday, January 26, 2021. It is time for our weekly check in on the crises we have been covering.
PANDEMIC. Consulting our usual source of data on the pandemic, Worldometers, for the week of January 18-25, we find that there were small signs that the rate of spread may be lessening. Numbers of cases and deaths continue to soar, but the pace may be slowing in some ways.
The number of cases of COVID-19 in the world is now right at one hundred million (99,839,954). This was a 4% weekly rise, a slight dip from the 5% rate of the previous week (Jan. 11-18). In the last month, the pandemic has spread to 20m people, a rate of 25%. As for deaths in the world, the number is now well over two million (2,140,489). Last week 100,000 people died of covid, a rising rate of 5%, the same as the earlier week. In the past month, 368,000 people died of the disease, a 21% rise. The past thirty days have been the worse so far of the pandemic in numbers of new cases and deaths.
In the United States, the pandemic continues to spread rapidly, but at a slowing pace. Last week (Jan. 18-25) there were 1,220,075 new cases of COVID-19, a rising rate of 5%, down from the 7% of the earlier week (Jan. 11-18). This means that 25,702,125 Americans have been infected, or app. 8% of the national population. This makes it comparatively a highly contagious disease. Unfortunately, there are new strains of the virus now circulating that are much more contagious. As for deaths, 22,288 Americans died of COVID-19 effects last week, for a total of 429,490. This is a rising rate of 5%, down slightly from the 6% of the earlier week. In the last month, 90,000 Americans died of the disease, or nearly a quarter of all deaths in the last year. The U.S. is clearly experiencing the worst phase, so far, of the pandemic.
In our local states, the figures are mixed. In South Carolina last week there were 30,141 new cases for a total of 418,325. This was a rising rate of 8%, slightly higher than the 7% of the previous week. In the last month, there were 120,000 new cases reported in SC, a 40% rise. As for deaths in SC, the state reported 310 last week for a total of 6,547, a rate of 5%, down from the 7% of the earlier week. In the past month, the state listed 1,500 deaths, app. 40% rise. It is starkly clear that the past 30 days have been by far the worse of the pandemic, so far, in SC.
In Alabama, the rates are slowing, if slightly. Last week, the state reported 18,572 new cases (as compared with 30,141 in SC), for a total of 441,170, a rising rate of 4%, down from the 5% of the previous week. Last week, the state reported 540 deaths for a total of 6,660, a rising rate of 9%, down from the 15% of the earlier week.
In Charleston County, the numbers may be lightening. Last week, the county reported 1,955 new cases, for a total of 30,997, a rising rate of 7%, down from the 8% of the previous week. As for deaths, the county listed 9 for last week, a total of 361. In the last month, the county listed over 7,000 new cases, about a third increase.
We should pause for a moment and let scope of this tragedy settle in. 429,490 Americans have died in this pandemic. 6,547 of these were in SC, 6,660 in AL. All of this happened withing one year. The experts are warning us that we are on track to lose several hundred thousand more of our fellow citizens before this nightmare is over. God help us.
Yes, we have vaccines, but no they are not being administered well. The supply system is slow while the delivery is chaotic. In many places, the people who are eligible to get the vaccine cannot do so. The new administration in Washington says it will turn heaven and earth to beat this pandemic. We will see.
LITIGATION. As for SC, nothing new to report. We are awaiting the breakaway contingent's brief to the SC supreme court. Apparently this will appear next month. The Episcopal diocese of SC is appealing the outrageous decision of Judge Dickson that purported to overturn the SCSC decision of 2017 concerning the schism. Also next month we are likely to learn if the U.S. Supreme Court will take the case from Fort Worth TX. The Episcopal Church is asking the supremes to grant cert, that is, to take an appeal of the case. Last year, the TX supreme court ruled entirely in favor of the entity that left the Episcopal Church and claimed to retain all on the way out. So, as usual, we are just waiting in camp between battles of the legal war that seems to be never ending. I think we are all feeling battle fatigue.
POLITICAL. There is good news and there is bad news. The good news is that democracy prevailed in America. This validates the Great Democratic Revolution of the past half century. The American people reaffirmed their democratic principles and rejected the anti-democratic challenge from the Trumpistas. The bad news is that a large, angry, and irreconcilable (at least so far) minority of Americans who are ready to install an anti-democratic regime, even with violence. This is the huge danger lurking over America. More than half of members of the Republican Party continue to believe the lie that Trump really won the election and the Democrats stole it by rigging the vote. Also, the same number think it is OK for a mob to attack the Capitol and overthrow the constitutional government. The Republicans in the House of Representatives and the Senate are reflecting this shocking sentiment in their party. They have shown absolutely no intention of cooperating with an administration that most of their voters think is illegitimate. The Republicans in Congress have signaled they will do what they can to obstruct the new administration.
In two weeks, the former president, Donald Trump, will be put on trial in the Senate. This is historic and unprecedented because what he did was historic and unprecedented. No president of the United States has ever incited a mob to overthrow the government. This brings us to an enormously important moment in American history. Trump must be held accountable for the political crime with which he is charged (inciting an insurrection against the United States). He must be convicted. If he is acquitted, it will be a signal that any president in the future can attempt a coup d'état and if it fails, so what? There will be no consequences. If Trump is acquitted, the future of the American constitutional government is in grave peril. It is doubtful that it will survive for very much longer. Under certain leadership and organization, any president in the future could seize power, suspend the constitution, and make a fascist regime. Right now, he or she would have about 40% of the people supporting such a move.
The grave nature of this moment is the product of our American failure to come to terms with our racism. Our fragile nation-state is on the verge of coming apart at the seam of racial division. The violent mob that stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6 was spurred overwhelmingly by white supremacy. They wanted to preserve, even by death, what they see as a white man's country. They came a lot closer to succeeding than we originally believed. Next time, they may prevail.
In my view, the stakes are clear. It is not at all difficult to see what is happening in the U.S. now. America will continue to develop as a democratic society or it will veer to an anti-democratic, fascist state. For a democratic society, we must hold all people to be equal and govern by majority rule. This means we must defeat the white supremacists and their fellow anti-democratic travelers. It is as simple as that. For starters, we must convict Trump of a crime against America. This was the worst act any president has ever made. If we tolerate this, we will not keep our constitutional democracy.
What are the chances for Trump's conviction? Not strong. Trump still has a lot of power over his fans. Recall that he got 47% of the popular vote. He has a huge and highly devoted following. At this moment, it is doubtful that enough of the Republican senators have the courage to do the right thing. Tom Rice of South Carolina did the right thing. The senators could do it too. However, today it looks as if courage is in very short supply among Republican senators.
The year 2021 was supposed to be better. We were so relieved that we survived 2020. I still want to believe that things will be better, that the pandemic will end, that the courts will finally come to reason in the church cases, that our fragile democratic republic will survive. I want desperately to believe, and so I will keep my face in the direction of the light. We still have a long and hard way to go in our dark tunnel. So, I think it important to keep reminding ourselves that we are here for a reason, and that is to be God's people in this hour in time. We are all in this together. We are here for the living of this moment, as challenging as it may be. Peace.
