Wednesday, March 4, 2020


What a difference a week makes! The American political scene has changed dramatically in just the last few days. Yesterday was Super Tuesday in which fourteen states cast their votes in primary races. So, where do we stand now? Here is my take of where we are on the morning after:

---Biden is going to be the nominee of the Democratic party and will win the general election in November. The majority of Democrats are rallying around Biden and turning away from the radical agenda of Bernie. This is the proper approach because of history.

In the theory of revolutionary cycles of history, to which I ascribe, there are four phases of every great revolution of modern history: 1-overthrow of old regime and moderate reform, 2-radical reform, 3-counter-revolutionary reaction, 4-compromise between radical and counter-revolution. We Americans are now in phase three (Phase One was New Deal of the 1930's; Phase Two was Great Society of mid-1960's; Phase Three started in 1968 with Republicans' Southern Strategy). President Trump's genius is to energize and solidify the reactionary forces of Phase Three and combine this with autocracy. However, Trump has never had the support of the majority of the American people and he had done nothing to build his support beyond his base (Wall Street, angry white working class man, southern whites, evangelicals). Trump has coalesced forty percent of the nation solidly behind him. With this, he had accomplished a great deal in both rolling back democratic reforms and in building a non-constitutional personalized executive. The issue now before the American people is whether to continue with Phase Three or to go to Phase Four. The feeling I have today is that the consensus in the nation is to move to Phase Four. This will mean the rejection of Trump in the general election, especially since Biden clearly represents a settling down into moderation and order.

Bernie is out of step with history. He belongs in Phase Two. I believe this is why he is failing to win a majority of the Democrats' votes. He is the right man at the wrong time. He is either way behind the times or way ahead. I prefer to think he is way ahead and hope his sweeping reforms will come into fruition one day down the road. As for now, I think most people want the safety and security of moderation and order. This is what Biden is offering.

Apparently the move to Biden's promise of the restoration of compromise, order, and peace is what most Americans want now. The radicals who love Bernie are not the majority. Warren and Bloomberg, for whatever reasons, failed to convince voters they could restore order as well as Biden could. I think they are finished.

Thus, the overwhelming issue in this year's general election is Trump. It is a binary choice: four more years of Trump, which would be Trump on steroids, or a restoration of democratic values and governmental system. There was a loud voice from the people yesterday that we do not want four more years of Trump. 

---However, Trump remains extremely popular among his base. It is practically a cult. The best case in point of this yesterday was what happened here in Alabama. Jeff Sessions was on the ballot for the Republican primary for the U.S. Senate. He was thought to be a cinch. He had been overwhelmingly popular in the state until he became Trump's attorney general. Because he did not bend the law to do exactly what Trump wanted, Trump attacked and smeared Sessions mercilessly until the man quit. The compliant Trump train turned against Sessions. Yesterday, Sessions came in second--to a former football coach! Sessions won just 31% of the vote. Tommy Tuberville, once a hum-drum coach at Auburn, won 32% of the vote. These two will be in a run-off later this month. There is a good chance Sessions will lose. So, the devoted followers of Trump in Alabama trashed a man they had once revered simply to honor their beloved messiah. Nothing exemplifies the devotion of southern whites to Trump more than what has happened to Jeff Sessions, a man who is now all but politically dead in his own state. 

The point of this is that Democrats had better be prepared for a rough, no-holds-barred campaign in which Trump and his followers will do anything to get Trump reelected. Fox News and all of the powerful right-win propaganda machine will give us Biden-Burisma 24/7. There is just no telling what else will happen to sway this election.

Altogether, I take yesterday's events as good news. The country is moving in the right direction, to reject the politics of division and destruction that Trump personifies, and to restore the values of democracy and consensus on which this country has functioned so well for so many years. Today, I see a great deal of reason for optimism and confidence in the future.

(BTW, if anyone is wondering for whom I voted, it was Biden, for all the reasons I have stated above. Biden won a landslide in AL with 63% of the vote.)
P.S. It was just announced that Bloomberg has dropped out of the race and has endorsed Biden and that Warren is considering dropping out.